College Football: Illinois vs Michigan
3:30 p.m. Saturday — Champagne, IL
When a team’s season in the Big Ten goes south and a bowl bid is all but impossible, its attention inevitably shifts in a decidedly different direction.
The effort usually slips because it’s just human nature. But when that team plays a big-name opponent like Michigan, Penn State, or Ohio State, you can usually expect nothing short of their best effort.
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Now that the 1-6 Illinois Fighting Illini have had their season essentially ruined by their poor start, Saturday’s home game against Michigan is basically their season, and it may very well be Zook’s Last Stand, as in Ron Zook, the embattled Illinois head coach.
Michigan isn’t as good as they were two years ago, but they’re an explosive offensive team with a lot of young talent and an opponent that certainly has Illinois’ attention and would be a big win for a group stuck in a depressing situation.
The 5-3 Wolverines are 7-point favorites in this one with the over/under set at 53 ½ points going into the game. 
For Michigan to cover the spread they will need to avoid the big play on defense as they gave up too many last week against Penn State. Their linebackers have been poor against the pass especially and in keeping outside containment.
Last year in a 45-20 loss against the Illini at home, UM had a similar crew of guys and they were made to look foolish by the Illini’s trademark ball fakes. Juice Williams did most of the damage on the ground and in the air and he returns this year.
While Williams hasn’t played nearly as well as last year he will be a big reason why Illinois should keep this game close most of the way.
His offensive line is not nearly as good this time around, however.
But Michigan’s safety play has been miserable this season as well so the Illini passing game could finally get untracked if Williams gets time to throw. Jacob Charest, a pocket passer, might also see some time but he’s raw at this point.
On offense, Michigan’s running game has been solid all year. Losing center David Molk, their best lineman, hurts a lot but the running game has been solid even without him.
Illinois is 101st in rushing defense and Michigan’s stable of good running backs should have a nice day if they can hold onto the ball.
Trend-wise, Michigan is 6-1 in their last 7 SU vs. Illinois and is 4-2 in the last six against the spread vs. them as well. But the Lloyd Carr era was far different than the current Rich Rodriguez era.
Taking everything into account including the fact that Michigan is playing two freshman QB’s on the road against a school and team that doesn’t like them very much at all and what could be a surprisingly tough crowd, the Wolverines will have a hard time covering the 7 point spread.
UM should win this game by about four points if they take care of the ball and run it well, but Illinois should keep it close.
The pick: Illinois (+7) and the under (53 ½).
