Marshall vs. Bowling Green Preview & Pick (Sept. 18)

Marshall Thundering Herd vs Bowling Green Falcons Free Week 3 College Football Pick

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Thundering Herd at Falcons Matchup

Saturday September 18 – 7:00PM
Perry Stadium, Bowling Green OH
Marshall (0-2) vs. Bowling Green (0-2)
(Odds Courtesy of BetUS)
Moneyline: Marshall -150, Bowling Green +130
Spread Favourite: Marshall -3 (-110)
Over/Under: 50.5
Bet Now @ Betus.com!

Marshall

The Thundering Herd are trying to recover from a crushing loss to rival West Virginia last week.  They had their in state foe on the mat but let them sneak back into the game  and win it in overtime.  How new coach Doc Holliday gets his squad ready to play Bowling Green this week will say a lot about his ability to turn around the program.  One thing they can take from the loss is that this team is pretty tough and for a half was dominating a team likely to finish in the top 25.

When the lines came out I was surprised that Marshall was the favourite in this contest.  They are on the road facing a team they beat by only a TD last year but I guess I wasn’t the only one impressed with their play last Friday night.  If Marshall plays like that again on Saturday the Falcons won’t know what hit them.  The Thundering Herd were whacked by Ohio State in the opener but responded well last week. Odds are their true level is somewhere between the two teams we have seen.

These two teams met last year and were former conference mates in the MAC.  They have very contrasting styles though.  Marshall plays more like a MAC team, favouring a solid running game and defense while Bowling Green is more like a C-USA squad, preferring to air it out from the spread.  As a result Marshall is very familiar with the type of offense they will see and to be honest, teams in C-USA like Houston, SMU and UTEP run that system with more dangerous weapons.  Provided Marshall can muster enough emotion they should be able to win the game.

Bowling Green

The Falcons were a pleasant surprise in coach Dave Clawsons first season last year.  They were 7-5 in the regular season then lost a thriller of a bowl game to Idaho 43-42.  Despite that success they knew it would be tough to match last year’s effort given that starting QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, both record setting performers, as well as others moved on.  Still they have held their own in losses to Tulsa and Troy, covering the spread both times. Just a few plays here or there and they could easily be 1-1 instead of 0-2.

Building for the future they have elected to go with redshirt freshman Matt Schilz as their starting QB this year.  He is not as highly touted as true frosh Caleb Watkins but knows the system better.  So far the results have not been very good.  He has thrown for 1 TD against 4 interceptions.  Thankfully he has found a go to receiver in Kamar Jorden.  He is a big target at 6’3” and already has 23 catches in just two games.  Last year Barnes caught 155 passes and Jorden is not far off this pace.  Although it is unlikely he will match the 19 TD catches that Barnes had a season ago.

Bowling Green is playing exactly like a team that only has 8 returning starters (4 on offense and 4 on defense).  On the defensive side the strength is the D-Line where three starters return.  So far that hasn’t shown up well against the pass heavy teams they have played but against a more balanced team like Marshall that experience should be more evident.  They have been averaging giving up 200 yards a game on the ground though.  If they do that again this weekend Marshall will eat clock and keep their fast paced offense off the field.

The Pick:  Both these teams need this badly if they want to notch a win before conference play.  I think Marshall is due for a letdown after the emotional loss last week while Bowling Green should be improving as the season progress. 

This should be a tight one so take the home team and the points.

College Football Gambling Trends

Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Thundering Herd are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Thundering Herd are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in September.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Score Prediction:  Bowling Green 24 – Marshall 20

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