San Diego State Aztecs vs. Missouri Tigers Gambling Preview + Predictions
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Aztecs at Tigers CFB Lines
Date/Time: 7:00 PM ET, September 18, 2010
Venue: Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
San Diego State vs. Missouri Lines from JustBet.com
MoneyLine: TBA
Spread: Missouri -16
Over/Under: TBA
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Missouri Tigers Preview
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This Saturday night in a non-conference match up of a couple of 2-0 teams the Missouri Tigers host the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Aztecs have schooled both of their opponents this season scoring over 40 points in each contest, but both teams they have played have been cream puffs. Mizzou is not a cream puff and they are at home and will give State their toughest test this season by far.
San Diego State comes into this game 2-0, which is their first 2-0 start in 16 years. They also snapped their 14-game non-conference losing streak last week.
The Tigers scored 50 points last week, but it was not against a good team. They will now face a San Diego State team that has a legit offense and is looking for their first winning season since 1998. Mizzou has a good passing attack and a solid defense and they cannot take the Aztecs for granted even though they are better than them on both sides of the ball.
Last week Mizzou laid an absolute beat down on McNeese State beating them 50-6 and San Diego State also had an easy time beating New Mexico State 41-21. The Aztecs are 1-0 ATS heading into this game and Missouri is 0-1 ATS, as the McNeese St. game had no line and they did not cover against Illinois in their season opener.
Missouri had 438 yards of offense against McNeese State but the main reason they won is that they forced State into 5 turnovers. Mizzou is led by strong-armed QB Blake Gabbert, who was solid last week going 26/31 for 220 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT. He has a couple of good WR targets and the San Diego State secondary that is experienced, but not spectacular will have to play well.
The Tigers have a good rushing offense led by talented freshman RB Henry Josey, who rushed for 112 yards with 3 TD averaging 16 yards per carry in last week’s win. He may be in for a big game this Saturday night since the weakness of the San Diego State defense is stopping the run.
Overall, the Aztecs’ defense is mediocre and last week in their win against New Mexico State they gave up 328 yards. Luckily the Aztecs’ offense was stellar and in that game they racked up 563 yards (319 yards passing 244 yards rushing).
QB Ryan Lindley leads San Diego St. on offense and he has a couple of great WR threats in the duo of Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson. Mizzou’s main weakness on defense is their secondary, but they are strong in rushing the passer, which they will have to do in this game.
The Aztecs’ offensive line is solid in pass protection, but not very good at run blocking. They will have to protect Lindley against Mizzou’s pass rush or things may get ugly.
The Aztecs do have a legit RB in Ronnie Hillman, who ran for 150 yards and scored 4 TD last week, but he will be facing a much tougher defense this week and that is a major understatement.
McNeese State had 5 turnovers in last week’s loss to Missouri and if San Diego State has turnover problems in this game they will be leaving the Midwest with their first loss of the season.
San Diego State has a solid QB and some NFL talent in the WR corps and they will likely have to get into a shootout to have any chance to win since their defense is a little sketchy.
Trends
San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Mizzou is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, and 1-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Something’s gotta give in this game, as in San Diego State’s last 6 non-conference games the total has gone Over 5 times and in Missouri’s last 7 non-conference games the total has gone Under 7 times.
The Aztecs do have the offense, but their D will not be able to stop Gabbert and the Mizzou rushing attack, as this game will not be close and the Tigers will easily win and easily cover the spread.
Pick: Missouri -16
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Jason Green had a solid week last week going 5-3 ATS in the college game and he could not be happier that the Redskins beat the Cowboys in D.C. on a oh so sweet offensive holding call negating a Tony Romo TD as time expired.
