Week 13: Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs New Mexico Lobos Preview Free College Football Pick
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Horned Frogs at Lobos
GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR CFB ATS STATS —>
Saturday November 27 – 4:00PM
University Stadium – Albequerque, New Mexico
TCU (11-0) vs New Mexico (1-10)
Moneyline: No moneyline currently listed
Spread Favourite: TCU -43.5
Over/Under: 56
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
TCU
It is too bad for TCU that they do not have a worthy opponent in their last chance to impress the voters and computers. Although, if you look closely at this game there is something the Horned Frogs can use as motivation. In week one New Mexico played Oregon and lost 72-0. The spread in that one was a scant 36 points, a touchdown less that what TCU is spotting the Lobos this weekend. What does that say about TCU? Probably not a heck of a lot but it is interesting.
What will also be interesting is how coach Patterson parcels out the playing time this week. Odds are this game will be close for about 7 minutes but will Patterson look to impress everyone by keeping regulars in to go for the jugular or will he allow some reserves to see action, especially any seniors on the club who might not see action a whatever bowl game they get assigned to.
The last time the Horned Frogs lost to New Mexico was 1997. They have won five in a row as conference mates in the Mountain West, covering every year but last year when they were 44.5 point favourites. Does that mean that last year’s TCU squad was better than this year’s? Maybe. I would not be shocked to see TCU cover but a pass seems like the smart play when numbers are that big.
New Mexico
The Lobos got their only win of the season by beating Wyoming 3 weeks ago as 9.5 point underdogs. As a result they avoid a winless season and avoid being in last place in the Mountain West as the Cowboys completed their season last week beating a horrible but two conference win Colorado State team. Tie goes to the winner. 
It is not hard to point out how bad the Lobos are but since they are playing TCU the starkest contrast is on defense. New Mexico is the second worst defensive team in the nation giving up an average of 42.4 points per game. The main culprit is the rush defense which is the worst in the nation, New Mexico gives up an average of 246 yards per game on the ground. TCU may not have a healthy Ed Wesley for this one but they should still be able to wrack up plenty of yardage.
New Mexico may be 1-10 SU but they are only 4-7 ATS which means that as bad as they are they are not as bad as the oddmakers make them out to be…sometimes. The Lobos have been 21 point or more dogs an amazing 6 times and are 2-4 ATS in those contests. I am running out of stuff to right about these guys…TCU is great and New Mexico stinks. I would stay away from this one unless you are an action junkie.
The Pick: Odds are Patterson will leave his starters in for a half but after that who knows. I think the backups on D will be fine but sometimes offense stalls in these kinds of situations. TCU all the way but I would never feel comfortable recommending giving up this many points.
College Football Gambling Trends
Horned Frogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Horned Frogs are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November.
Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Lobos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Score Prediction: TCU 56 – New Mexico 0
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