Week 11 Odds: Mountaineers vs Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns 4-5 (3-3 Big 12) hosts the West Virginia Mountaineers 6-3 (4-2 Big 12). Cappers Picks posts free college football picks daily, so bookmark us and come back often for our analysis.
Texas has played four opponents this season and they’ve lost all of those games.
College Football Week 11 Picks
Mountaineers vs. Longhorns
When: Saturday, Nov 8th 2014 at 3:30pm ET
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium
TV: Fox Sports 1
NCAAF Week 11 Gambling Line: West Virginia –3
NCAAF Week 11 Gambling O/U Line: 52 Points
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The Mountaineers have only gone 1-3 against ranked opponents, but their win came against a very good Baylor team.
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Other than the blowout loss to BYU, the Longhorns are about where they should be. This team has had a lot of off the field issues to deal with this year although that can’t be used as an excuse.
Texas isn’t likely to beat TCU, so they need to beat WVU and Oklahoma State to become bowl eligible. I personally don’t see that happening. Texas has been unable to get the offense going all season.
The Longhorns average 22.2 PPG (104th), 212.6 PYPG (81st) and 149.1 RYPG (83rd). Tyron Swoopes hasn’t had a bad year, but he’s only averaging 6.55 yards per pass attempt and has just 9 passing TD’s.
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West Virginia’s defense hasn’t been great. They give up 25.7 PPG (62nd), 212.6 PYPG (45th) and 176.4 RYPG (84th). I expect them to shutdown Swoopes, but Texas will move the chains with their run game.
Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray are both averaging over 4.0 YPC on 100+ carries this year. If Texas is going to win this game at home both RB’s are going to have to run with force all game long.
I’ve been really impressed with the Mountaineers offense this season. WVU is averaging 36.1 PPG (23rd), 325.8 PYPG (11th) and 182.4 RYPG (53rd). This will be a tough test on the road though.
Texas may struggle offensively, but the defense is only allowing 23.1 PPG (45th), 177.3 PYPG (9th) and 175.1 RYPG (82nd). WVU should look to establish the run early to set-up the pass later in the game.
Kevin White has been an absolute beast this season. White leads WVU with 75 receptions for 1075 yards and 8 TD’s. Clint Trickett has thrown 7 INT’s, but other than that he has been tremendous.
Texas is just 2-4 at home this season with there only wins against Iowa State (48-45) and North Texas (38-7). WVU is 3-0 on the road with wins over Maryland (40-37), Texas Tech (37-34) and OSU (34-10).
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NCAAF Week 11 Betting Trends:
* WVU are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
* Under is 10-1 in TEX last 11 games in November.
* Under is 9-2 in TEX last 11 home games.
* Under is 7-2 in TEX last 9 conference games.
Free 4* NCCAF Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Longhorns
It wouldn’t surprise me if West Virginia ended up winning by a FG in this game. Texas may be able to keep Trickett and White in check with their pass defense, which would allow them to stay in this game.
West Virginia Mountaineers –3 (-115)
If WVU is able to air it out then they should win by double digits with ease. Texas knows they have to win this game to keep their bowl chances alive, so they should come out strong, but WVU is too good.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 11 Odds.
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