Week 13: Falcons vs Aztecs Odds
College football Week 13 betting action sees the Air Force Falcons taking on the San Diego State Aztecs on Friday November 21st at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. Cappers Picks provides free NCAA football handicapping tips all season long.
It’s a battle of the run game this week as the Air Force Falcons head to sunny Southern California to take on the Aztecs in San Diego.
College Football Lines
Air Force (8-2, 4-2 Mtn West) @ San Diego State (5-5, 3-3 Mtn West)
Friday, November 21st 9:30 PM ET
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego
NCAA Football Spread: San Diego State -4.5
NCAA Football O/U: 50
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Both offenses have thrived on the run this season, out gaining their respective passing attack each game.
Air Force played one of the best games in recent history last week, knocking off Nevada in a thrilling, back and forth overtime game.
That speaks volumes for the Falcons who were 2-8 at this point last season, the complete opposite of their current 8-2 mark.
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San Diego State, on the other hand, lost a heartbreaker against conference foe Boise State. Despite the loss, though, the Aztecs remain atop the Western division in their Mountain West Conference with a 3-way tie.
A win against the surprising Falcons could help them put some distance between themselves and the others.
Air Force
Air Force played out of their mind last week, giving the home crowd a huge win to celebrate. Sitting in second place in the Mountain division, the Falcons are looking to join the 3-way tie for first if not jump the pack entirely.
Kale Pearson has been a rock for the Falcons. In the passing game, he has completed 86 of 140 passes for 1,342 yards, 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is on his way to breaking the school’s all-time efficiency record, currently sporting a 169.73 QBR.
On the ground, Pearson has joined Jacobi Owens in their rushing assault. Pearson has 143 carries for 587 yards and 6 touchdowns. Owens has 204 carries for 1,054 yards and 5 scores.
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As a whole, 8 different players have scored rushing touchdowns for the Falcons this season, with half of those scoring at least 5 times each.
Three of Pearson’s wide receivers have over 100 yards receiving this season. Jalen Robinette has 34 grabs for 642 yards and 4 scores. Garrett Brown has 26 catches for 398 yards and 6 touchdowns and Garrett Griffin has 14 grabs for 223 yards and 3 scores.
While the running game has been getting lots of love, the Falcon defense has played very well this season, keeping their team in the hunt in many games. Jordan Pierce has been the leader of the defense, registering a whopping 94 tackles this season. He’s also got 15 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 2 interceptions, a pass breakup and a blocked kick.
Weston Steelhammer has been electric as well on defense. Registering 37 tackles this year, 5 went for loss, including 3 sacks. He’s got 4 interceptions, 2 pass breakups, 2 fumble recoveries and a safety this year as well.
San Diego State
Despite their winning record, the Aztecs have seen better days. Going back to a more balanced playstyle, San Diego State has been dominant on the ground as it has in recent years. And it shows in a Ronnie Hillman-like way.
Quarterback Quinn Kaehler has put up some decent numbers so far: 137 of 235 passing, 1,656 yards, 8 touchdowns, 9 interceptions. He has 7 receivers over 100 yards on the season as well as 8 receivers with double digit receptions on the season.
His leading receiver is Eric Judge, who has 21 rushes for 373 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ezell Ruffin is next, with 17 carries for 284 yards and 2 scores.
The Aztec rush offense has ran for just over 2,000 yards this season, with Donnel Pumphrey getting the vast majority of the workload. On 207 carries so far this season, Pumphrey has 1,363 yards and 15 scores.
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The only other running back who has scored for San Diego State this year is Chase Price, who has 97 carries for 467 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Alex Barrett and Cody Galea are leading the defense with 3 sacks each, which has 21 as a whole this season. Barrett has 5 QB hits, a forced fumble and a blocked kick while Galea has 4 QB hits and 2 forced fumbles.
Calvin Munson is leading the team in interceptions with 3. He’s also got 61 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble.
NCAA football handicapping trends
- Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win
- Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass
- Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall
- Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss
- Aztecs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
Week 13 NCAA Football Prediction
There are a lot of scenarios that could break out in this game. With both teams being primarily rush offenses, it would be seemingly easy to hone in on the running backs and keep this game close throughout its entirety. This could force the teams to win with their quarterback.
The Aztecs have won all 4 games at home this season.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Air Force +4.5
Despite that, I believe Air Force has the defense and the quarterback advantage to give them the edge in a close game.
Final Week 13 Score: Air Force 31 – San Diego State 21
Anything can happen in conference games, but I’m giving this one to the Falcons, straight up, on the road.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 13 Odds.
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