The Aztecs of San Diego State (0-1 SU, 0-0 ATS) suffered an awful upset in their first game of the year, and on Saturday they will try to redeem themselves when they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who, to say the least, start the 2008 season on a quest for redemption, in an NCAA college football matchup that is set for a 3:30 PM ET kickoff at Notre Dame Stadium (natural turf) in South Bend, IN.
BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: NOTRE DAME -21.5, Total 42.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* SDSU has lost four of its last five games SU
* SDSU has covered four of its last 13 road games
* SDSU has lost 11 of its last 13 road games SU
* SDSU has played seven of its last ten road games OVER the total
* ND has covered eight of its last 23 games
* ND has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* ND has played ten of its last 13 games UNDER the total
* ND has covered three of its last 13 home games
* ND has lost six of its last seven home games SU
* ND has played eight of its last 12 home games UNDER the total
I’m not sure things can get much worse than when you are a program that would like to pride itself on being able to pound the football, yet in the season opener you get held to 27 net rushing yards by an opponent who plays Division 1-AA football (or Championship Subdivision, as it were). Yet that is the case with San Diego State, which converted only two of 11 first downs and was beaten by a field goal at the final gun by Cal Poly. Losing QB Kevin O’Connell was bad enough. Now they’ve lost some badly-needed pride at SDSU.
It’s been a tumultuous road for head coach Chuck Long, a former NFL backup QB and assistant coach who during his playing days at Iowa was once the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy. During Long’s two-year tenure at San Diego State, his team has suffered ten losses by three touchdowns or more. They were plagued by injuries in his first season, and there has been much negative talk about Long’s often-futile insistence on establishing a ground attack. In the opener they certainly looked to be taking to the air, however, as Ryan Lindley threw it 45 times.
Okay, so we know San Diego State is somewhat available to get whacked around a bit. But is Notre Dame going to be a team that is capable of delivering the fatal blows? Let’s not forget that the Irish will have to turn around an awful lot to get back to playing bowl-level football.
This is a team that was 119th in total offense, 119th in sacks allowed, 110th in passing and 115th in rushing, They do not bring back anyone who can be counted on as a big playmaker on offense. Sure, Jimmy Clausen (56%), who was one of the nation’s prize recruits, is back for his sophomore season and should have more confidence, but is he closer to being another Rick Mirer than another Joe Montana?
The bottom line is, I don’t want to lay 21.5 points with this team. Instead, we’ll go the way of the total in this one, with Notre Dame bringing back three starters from a team that ranked third in pass defense and adding the smarts of new defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta (late of Georgia Tech), we’ll go UNDER the 42.5-point number as it is posted in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.
