CappersPicks – College Basketball Weekend Preview
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Whats doing at (or near) the top?
(No change at very top so lets move down and see what #3 Villanova is up to this weekend)
Sunday December 6, 7:30 PM
Villanova vs. Maryland
@Maryland
Last game for Villanova: 77-58 victory over Drexel (ATS win -17.5)
Last Game for Maryland: 80-68 victory over Indiana (ATS win -5)
Matchup history: No Previous Meeting
Line: No Line Yet
This is a nice out of conference matchup that could really boost Maryland’s resume or confirm the elite status of Villanova. This game also pits one of the best guards in America, Greivis Vazquez of Maryland, against the best backcourt in the nation. Villanova enters the contest undefeated but this will be their stiffest test thus far. Maryland rebounded from two losses to grab an easy victory in the Big Ten/ACC challenge over Indiana. They really need a signature win out of conference as they will be among a deep middle in the ACC. They have no other out of conference games remaining with this kind of juice.
Villanova may have just suffered a setback in losing big frosh Yarou to injury but they are rolling. They have five players averaging more than 10ppg in scoring and it appears that Antonio Pena is comfortable stepping into the void created by the graduation of Dante Cunningham – he is averaging more than 10 boards a game thus far. They are 5-1 ATS with the lone loss being a surprise squeaker over George Mason, but that was just the kind of game to wake up an elite team early in the year to the fact that nothing is given in college hoops, it is earned. Look for the Wildcats to swarm the Terps on the perimeter in this one and grab a solid victory in a hard fought contest.
Maryland has always been a fighting team. I don’t know if it is their DC roots or the fact they they are always overlooked in their conference, but they always give a max effort and we should see this on Sunday night. They just don’t have enough horses to win this race and Greivis Vazquez will see a slew of defenders big and small to disrupt his all-around game. Unless he has an off the charts game the Terps will just not have enough. The best way to put a hurt on Nova is by having bigs that can punish them inside drawing fouls and getting easy baskets. Unfortunately this is nor Maryland’s forte
Score Prediction: Villanova – 77 + Maryland – 70
Pick: Villanova should control this one from start to finish. They will not end the season undefeated but should coast until conference play.
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Mid-Major Rager
Saturday December 5, 5:30 PM
Wake Forest vs. Gonzaga
@Gonzaga
Last Game for Wake Forest: Loss at Purdue 69-58 (+10.5)
Last Game for Gonzaga: Victory over Washington State 74-69 (-9.5)
Line: Gonzaga -6
Matchup history: No recent meetings
Everyone wanted write off the end of the Gonzaga leading the mid-majors era coming into the season. Butler was getting a lot of attention and the Zags had only one starter returning. 6 weeks later the Bulldogs are ahead of the other Bulldogs in the polls with a chance to improve their resume with an out of conference home game against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are slumping into this road contest off two losses including an upset by William and Mary. What a difference a year and a couple of early NBA defections can make.
Although the underdog, Wake enters this contest with the best player on the floor in Al-Farouq Aminu. A beast as a frosh he is performing even better averaging a double-double in the early going. Despite the loss of Jeff Teague and James Johnson the cupboard is not completely bare for the Deacons. Ishmael Smith and Chas Macfarland are experienced and solid at point and in the pivot giving Wake a nice nucleus. When the role players are effective this team can hang with anybody and don’t be surprised to see then grab an upset once conference play starts in the ACC.
Gonzaga’s Matt Bouldin is a great senior leader…but I am sure even he thought this would be a long season. Thankfully, some unfamiliar faces have stepped up, most notably Robert Sacre and newcomer Elias Harris who is leading the team in rebounding even though he is a slight 6’8″. Bouldin is leading the way but they are getting balanced production with 4 players averaging over 13 ppg. Some thought they might have lost their grasp on the WCC but that thinking is a bit premature. Right now their only loss was by 4 at Michigan State. Their next big test will be against another ACC team, Duke, in a couple of weeks. They should grab victory on Saturday in a tightly played contest.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga – 72 + Wake Forest – 63
Pick: Wake won’t quit and Bulldogs solid FT shooting will ice the game late.
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Can’t Ignore
Saturday December 5, 12:30PM
North Carolina vs Kentucky
@Kentucky (Rupp Arena)
Last game for North Carolina: 89-82 win over Michigan State (-1.5)
Last game for Kentucky: 94-57 victory over UNC-Asheville (NL)
Line: KENTUCKY -3
Matchup History: UNC has won last 5 (5-0 ATS)
Most thought this early season tilt would be a game of unbeatens but Syracuse spoiled our fun by roughing up the Tar Heels a couple of weeks ago. Either way fans are in for a treat as this game features big name coaches, NBA talent and two of the highest scoring teams in the country. Whoever wins should not be surprised at a rematch sometime in late March. For UNC this game is a nice test for their bigs and another chance to prove they are among the top tier of teams in the country. For Kentucky, this is a chance for their fab frosh to prove they deserve their hype against top flight competition.
Other than a hiccup against the Orange, UNC’s season has gone as planned. They have already beaten the best the Big Ten has to offer and now they can test themselves against the SEC. Despite the mass exodus of talent they are still able to run their system and are getting production throughout their lineup. Surprisingly it is Deon Thompson not Ed Davis leading in scoring at just under 18ppg. Perhaps Davis does not have the mindset to be a dominating college player. Sometimes he is just too passive which will be a challenge against KU’s front line.
Kentucky answers up front with Patrick Patterson and frosh Demarcus Cousins. These two beefy inside players combine to average over 30ppg and nearly 20 boards per game. Both will be playing in the NBA, likely next year, as will their true frosh PG John Wall. I am reserving judgement on the phenom till I see him for a whole game but the reports yield a savvy distributor who knows when to score. Just the kind of player every team is looking for which is why some think he could be the top pick next year. His presence gives the Wildcats an advantage at PG in this matchup and most others all season long. If the Wildcat’s can hit a few outside jumpers to keep everybody honest then the game will be theirs. I really like their chances.
Score Prediction: Kentucky – 87 + UNC- 80
Pick: This game is absolutely huge and who ever wins it will be in the drivers seat for a potential top seed in the Tourney. You gotta like Kentucky at home. Sure they are led by freshmen but they have already had some close battles and experienced a little adversity.
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