CappersPicks – College Basketball Weekend Preview
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Whats doing at (or near) the top?
(Looking at the top 10 and the best matchup seems to feature #5 Purdue)
Sunday December 12, 9:00 PM
Purdue vs. Alabama
@Alabama
Last game for Purdue: 86-62 victory over Valparaise (ATS loss -24.5)
Last Game for Alabama: 74-46 victory over Louisiana-Monroe (ATS win -16)
Matchup history: Alabama 81 – Purdue 75 (2001) (not much relevancy)
Line: Purdue -4
This is a pretty good early season out of conference matchup. Purdue is certainly the better team as they are highly ranked but Alabama has some players, always plays hard and is showing improvement under new head coach Anthony Grant. They are looking to improve their standing in the SEC pecking order where they are closer to the middle then the top. Purdue enters the game undefeated while Alabama is riding a three game win streak. The Tide faithful may be focused on football but this team is a pleasant distraction until the BCS Championship games next month.
Purdue is playing to form in the early going. They are undefeated with a nice close win over a strong Tennessee team and are looking to enter Big Ten play undefeated. That is a strong possibility with the only major obstacle in their way a date with West Virginia on New Year’s Day. This team has great balance among its junior class stars and is being led by E’Tawn Moore, JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel. In the early going none of them is being forced to log heavy minutes keeping them fresh for the Big Ten season that is to come. Most importantly the multi-talented Hummel is looking very healthy following a season where back pain affected his play. With this trio and two other starters who contribute they are tough to beat.
With a new coach Alabama is hoping to return to the days of making the NCAA tournament more often than not. To do so this year they are going to have to grab as many non-conference victories as possible and a win against highly ranked Purdue would be an amazing resume builder before they get into conference play. They have sufficient inside depth to bother Purdue’s Johnson in the paint but their overall talent is below the Boilermakers. In the early season they are shooting 3’s at a decent clip – almost 38% – and they will need to do so on Saturday to stay in the game. The effort should be there but in the end I think they will be outclassed by a Purdue team that could easily wind up in the Final Four.
Score Prediction: Purdue- 80 vs. Alabama- 68
Pick: Purdue will continue its winning ways on the road. At only -4 I would jump on this one right away.
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Mid-Major Rager
Saturday December 12, 7:00 PM
UNLV vs. Kansas State
@UNLV (Orleans Arena)
Last Game for UNLV: 66-63 victory at Santa Clara (ATS loss -8)
Last Game for Kansas State: 71-56 victory over Xavier (ATS win -6.5)
Line: UNLV -2
Matchup history: No recent meetings
Two teams with only one loss between them. Should be a pretty good matchup right? Both UNLV and Kansas State have performed better than expected thus far and are trying to build their resumes before conference action starts. For UNLV this game is important to its RPI as their league does little to improve its status. For the Wildcats a league championship is out of the question with Texas and Kansas to contend with but a victory over a potential league champion would be quite beneficial. This has all the makings for a very good game with a nice distribution of talent amongst each team.
UNLV is undefeated out of the gate and rising in the rankings. They have quality wins over Louisville, Nevada and Arizona but adding a Big 12 victim would really enhance their resume should they not win the Mountain West Conference. They are a very perimeter oriented team led by Tre’von Willis. He leads in scoring and assists and gets help from Chace Stanback who is listed at guard even though he is 6’8″. With their lack of size they push for a fast pace that can neutralize it although they held their own against the best big they have faced, Nevada’s Luke Babbitt. If they can get you playing their game by going small they have an advantage.
Kansas State is in the second tier of Big 12 schools. After losing Beasley it was assumed the program would wither but they have maintained their competitiveness behind a feisty coach and a group of players who are getting to shine without a phenom in their midst. Point guard Jacob Pullen improves every year and second leading scorer Denis Clemente is reliable as well. Frosh Wally Judge has yet to live up to the hype but if he does then K-State will have an inside presence to rival other conference leaders. Like so many other middle tier teams this team does not have great depth. Any injuries or bad performances make it hard for them to win. In their lone loss to Ole Miss Pullen and Clemente shot a combined 11 for 33. They are clearly the engine that drives the car.
Score Prediction: UNLV- 72 vs. Kansas State – 69
Pick: I see a hard fought close game coming down to the final possession. With such a tight game you might want to just play UNLV on the ML.
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Can’t Ignore
Saturday December 12, 2:00PM
Georgetown vs. Washington
@Washington (Rupp Arena)
Last game for Georgetown: 72-65 victory over Butler (ATS win -2.5)
Last game for Washington: 88-76 victory over Cal State-Northridge (ATS loss -19.5)
Line: Georgetown -1.5
Matchup History: UNC has won last 5 (5-0 ATS)
I absolutely love this matchup and hope I will be able to catch the game. Georgetown played very well against Butler and Washington seems to have shrugged off its setback against Texas Tech. It is also a bit of a David vs Goliath kind of thing featuring two ranked teams. Georgetown plays goliath as it has quality bigs led by Greg Monroe while Washington is David with little Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy and Quincy Pondexter. Whichever complimentary players play the best will likely get the win.
Greg Monroe was awesome against Butler. He was aggressive and effective and proved he is Naismith player of the year material. The rest of the team was solid around him which is why they got the victory against a pretty good team with relative ease. When Chris Wright and Austin Freeman are on their game, along with Monroe they can make a lethal combo. Their consistency is the key and they will need to step up against the Huskies or they could get run out of the gym.
Washington is very perimeter oriented…only one player 6’9″ or bigger sees any significant time and he is going to have his hands full with Monroe. On the other hand the UW has two wing player scoring more than 20ppg in Thomas and Pondexter. I know it is early but I can not remember seeing another duo with those kind of lofty averages. Both turn the ball over more than they should and will have to tighten it up if they want to knock off the Hoyas who are going to be all about ball security after turning it over way too many times in their recent win against Butler. This game is a wonderful contrast in styles and Washington will be able to use the crowd to help set the pace.
Score Prediction: Washington – 77 vs. Georgetown – 72
Pick: It is tough to travel across the country and win…especially in a hostile environment against top competition. Hoyas will battle and Monroe should dominate but in the end it will not be enough.
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