NCAA Hoops Predictions – Illinois Fightin Illini vs MSU Spartans
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Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, 9:05 PM ET
Odds: MSU -2.5
Total: 135
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The Big Ten plays in prime time this Saturday, and the BracketBusters event occupies the late, late show if you want to see a couple of mid-major programs battle on the West Coast.
It’s a bubble night in East Lansing, Michigan, as homestanding Michigan State tries to play its way off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament. Usually, MSU is playing for a top-two seed in a region, but this year, the Spartans have stumbled and bumbled for three solid months.
They’ve utterly failed to find any rhythm, consistency, identity, depth, or balance. Only forward Draymond Green has been of any use to head coach Tom Izzo, who kicked guard Korie Lucious off the team and has not been able to kick point guard Kalin Lucas into shape. Key contributors such as Delvon Roe and Durrell Summers, who were instrumental in leading Sparty to the 2009 and 2010 Final Fours, have been perplexingly and unfathomably silent in a massively underachieving season.
But some hope did come in the team’s latest loss 71-61 loss to Ohio State. Roe hurt his knee and only lasted eight minutes while Summers was held scoreless for the first time in a year. But three young big men stepped up and carried the load. Freshman Adreian Payne and sophomores Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman combined to score 23 points to keep the Spartans in the game while the veterans were struggling.
If the Spartans can get a bounce-back game from the players they normally rely on and get a boost from the young backups, then they’ll have a shot to win out their remaining five contests and have a shot.
Can Michigan State get off the deck against an Illinois team that’s likely to make the NCAA Tournament but still needs a few wins to seal an at-large bid? It’s probable, but not because of Sparty’s strengths.
Illinois is an inconsistent team in its own right, with a mercurial point guard named Demetri McCamey. It’s hard to imagine Illinois producing a steady and mature effort for 40 minutes on the road. The Illini will keep this game close, but they won’t make the plays that need to be made in order to win at the Breslin Center before a raucous Michigan State crowd. Take the Spartans in a battle of two underperforming squads.
NCAAB Betting Trends:
Over is 10-3 in ILL last 13 Sat. games.
MCHST are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
MCHST are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Pick: Michigan State
