2011 NCAA Tournament Predictions – Morehead St. Eagles vs Richmond Spiders Preview
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#13 Morehead State vs. #12 Richmond
NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET – SOUTHWEST REGION
Date/Time: Saturday, March 19, 5:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
Broadcast: CBS
Morehead State Eagles vs. Richmond Spiders Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: Morehead State +160, Richmond -180
Spread: Richmond -4
Over/Under: 126
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Morehead State Eagles (25-9)
One thing’s for certain: we’ll have a bona fide Cinderella on our hands no matter who wins between Morehead State and Richmond, as either a No. 12 seed or a No. 13 seed will be Sweet 16-bound. The sentimental pick could be Morehead State. Many pundits predicted Richmond’s win over Vanderbilt but few expected Morehead State to upset Louisville.
Morehead State’s 62-61 triumph over the Cardinals, capped by a late Demonte Harper three-ball, wasn’t the prettiest effort. Harper made the big three but missed his other five attempts; Kenneth Faried grabbed 17 boards but was 4 of 17 from the floor. Terrance Hill scored 23 points and was 5 of 6 from three-point range but had four turnovers. But everyone did at least something well and Morehead State ground out the win as a result.
Richmond Spiders (28-7)
It almost wasn’t to be, but Richmond rallied from a nine-point second-half deficit to take down Vanderbilt on Thursday. The key for the Spiders was a killer instinct in the long-range shooting game. Richmond attempted 24 long balls and drained half of them. Its three-ball success was no fluke, either; Richmond is sixth in the country at 40.6 per cent from three-point range this season.
The Spiders have been both hot and reliable for bettors of late. They’ve won eight straight games and beaten eight straight spreads. They also showcased a multi-faceted attack with Kevin Anderson, Justin Harper and Francis-Cedric Martel all scoring in double figures in the win over Vandy.
Trends:
Under is 10-1 in MORST last 11 neutral site games.
RICH are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
RICH are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 Sat. games.
The pick:
I think people are too in love with Morehead State after one victory. The Eagles weren’t on many if any top sleeper lists entering the tourney. Richmond was. Morehead State is a far superior rebounding team but I don’t think that matters too much; Richmond prefers to hoist shot after shot from the outside anyway.
Also, Richmond is taking better care of the basketball right now. It had just two turnovers against Vanderbilt; Morehead State coughed up the ball 17 times against Louisville.
I don’t think Morehead State can play that sloppily again and get away with it. I expect the more polished Richmond to shoot its way to the Sweet 16.
Morehead State vs Richmond prediction: Richmond 66, Morehead State 55
Money Line: Richmond -180
Spread: Richmond -4
Over/Under: UNDER 126
