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Nuggets vs. Mavs NBA Free Pick | Preview (Mar. 29)

Our experts weigh in with this week’s best Monday night hoops NBA picks for gambling on all the action…tonight on the hardwood we get the Denver Nuggets (48-26 SU, 31-37-6 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (48-25 SU, 29-42-2 ATS)…

MONDAY MARCH 29, 2010 – Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks

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Monday NBA odds: Nuggets at Mavs

Team records:
Denver: 48-26 SU, 31-37-6 ATS
Dallas: 48-25 SU, 29-42-2 ATS

Two of the top three teams in the NBA’s Western Conference will match up Monday night when the Dallas Mavericks host the Denver Nuggets. Both teams are struggling, so something has to give.

Matchup: Nuggets at Mavericks

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
Spread: Mavericks -5.5
Over/Under: 211 06

After a recent 13-game winning streak, Dallas (48-25, 29-42-2 ATS) has cooled off. The Mavericks are just 3-4 in their seven games since that impressive run, although they did blow out the Warriors on Saturday, picking up a 111-90 road win. It was the first time Dallas covered in eight games; the Mavs are a pathetic 1-6-1 in their past eight games on NBA odds. Playing at home certainly hasn’t been much of an advantage either—Dallas is winless in its past eight games at American Airlines Center.

A sliding Dallas offense has been mostly to blame for the slump. In the team’s past four losses, Dallas averaged just 93.7 points per game—despite a 101.6 average on the year—and failed to crack triple digits in any of those outings. Dirk Nowitzki needs to step up; he’s averaging just 18.0 points over his past five games and has led Dallas in scoring just twice during the seven-game slump.

Denver (48-26, 31-37-6 ATS) has dropped four of its past five outings, including a 103-97 defeat to Orlando on Sunday. In fact, since a six-game winning streak at the beginning of the month, Denver is just 3-5. Results have been even worse at the sportsbook; the Nuggets are 0-7-1 against the spread in their past eight games on NBA odds. Denver has covered just twice in its past 10 games away from home. Online Sports Betting at Sportsbook

Despite the best efforts of Carmelo Anthony, Denver has stumbled recently. Carmelo is averaging 29.6 points per game over his past five outings, yet the Nuggets managed to lose four of them. Although the team hasn’t played especially well on “D” during that stretch, the offense hasn’t been up to its usual lofty standards. Denver is cranking out 107.1 points per game this season, but that number dropped to 98.8 over the past five games.

This series has largely belonged to Denver. The Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 meetings with Dallas, and they’ve been just as good against the spread—Denver owns a 7-2-1 ATS advantage during those games.

Nuggets vs Mavericks Free Pick: Neither team is playing its best basketball right now, but it’s hard to contest Denver’s impressive record against the Mavericks. If ever there was a time to take an underdog, it’s now.

Bet on the Nuggets to cover on the road.

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By Ian Van Den Hurk

Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts. Looking for more sports betting tips and expert sports handicapping articles from Ian V? We've got your back...