2011 Heluva Good 400 – Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: For the past few weeks, pit strategy and fuel mileage have been taking center stage in the Cup Series and that might be the case again this weekend at Michigan, where fuel mileage often comes into play as the race winds down.
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Race: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 – Michigan International Speedway
Date: Sunday, June 19, 2011
Time: 1:18 PM ET (scheduled green flag)
TV: 1:00 PM ET on TNT
Teams practiced twice on Friday and will qualify on Saturday, though rain in the forecast might force a cancellation of qualifying, in which case cars will line up based on their speeds in first practice. David Ragan and AJ Allmendinger, both in Fords, posted the fastest laps Friday morning.
Though conventional wisdom views Michigan as a Ford-friendly track, just one of the last seven races here (June and August dates) has been won by a Ford driver; the other six have been taken by Dodge (1), Toyota (2), and Chevy (3).
Several active drivers are two-time Michigan winners, including Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, and Matt Kenseth.
Safe Bet: (odds of less than 10/1)
– Denny Hamlin (9/2): Though he’s yet to find Victory Lane this year, Hamlin won the June Michigan race last year after leading 123 of 200 laps and finished 2nd in the August race. Aside from a DNF with engine woes in August 2008, Hamlin has not finished outside the top-15 in 10 MIS starts.
It’s worth noting that Hamlin has led 134 laps over the last three Cup races (Charlotte, Kansas, Pocono), though he hasn’t had the finishes to show for it.
Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
– Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1): Earnhardt Jr. won this race in 2008 on fuel mileage and has eight top-10s here overall. He finished 7th in this race last year but is having a much better season now and is currently ranked 3rd in Cup points.
Junior ran in the top 10 in both practices Friday and is a driver known to enjoy running in the high groove, which can be beneficial at Michigan.
Long Shot: (odds of 20/1 or greater)
– David Ragan (50/1): As noted above, Ragan was fast in practice Friday and said he felt he had a car capable of winning the race. He was involved in a practice mishap with Jeff Burton during Happy Hour, but neither driver is expected to go to a backup. If qualifying is rained out, Ragan would start the race on the pole.
He has finished as high as 3rd at Michigan (August 2008).
Summary:
Any of the two-time winners listed above should be considered a threat for the win Sunday.
NASCAR – Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 – Odds To Win
A.J. Allmendinger #43 75/1
Andy Lally #71 500/1
Bobby Labonte #47 250/1
Brad Keselowski #2 45/1
Brian Keselowski #92 500/1
Brian Vickers #83 40/1
Carl Edwards #99 5/1
Casey Mears #13 500/1
Clint Bowyer #33 22/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 9/1
Dave Blaney #36 500/1
David Gilliland #34 500/1
David Ragan #6 30/1
David Reutimann #00 65/1
David Stremme #30 500/1
Denny Hamlin #11 10/1
Greg Biffle #16 12/1
J.J. Yeley #46 500/1
Jamie McMurray #1 60/1
Jeff Burton #31 40/1
Jeff Gordon #24 12/1
Jimmie Johnson #48 13/2
Joe Nemechek #87 500/1
Joey Logano #20 50/1
Juan Pablo Montoya #42 40/1
Kasey Kahne #4 25/1
Kevin Harvick #29 10/1
Kurt Busch #22 14/1
Kyle Busch #18 12/1
Landon Cassill #51 500/1
Marcos Ambrose #9 60/1
Mark Martin #5 35/1
Martin Truex Jr. #56 60/1
Matt Kenseth #17 8/1
Michael McDowell #66 500/1
Mike Bliss #32 500/1
Mike Skinner #60 500/1
Paul Menard #27 75/1
Regan Smith #78 125/1
Robby Gordon #7 500/1
Ryan Newman #39 50/1
Scott Riggs #81 500/1
T.J. Bell #50 500/1
Tony Raines #37 500/1
Tony Stewart #14 12/1
Travis Kvapil #38 500/1
Trevor Bayne #21 150/1
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
