2011 AAA 400 Race Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: Dover is the third race of the ten-race Chase for the Sprint Cup, the first two having been won by Tony Stewart, who now leads the point standings. Although he’s won twice at Dover in 25 starts, Stewart’s two wins here came back-to-back in 2000, and Dover has not been a great track for him recently.
Race: AAA 400 – Dover International Speedway
Date: Sunday, October 2, 2011
Time: 2:15 PM ET (scheduled green flag)
TV: 2:00 PM ET on ESPN
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Meanwhile, though many are already counting Jimmie Johnson out for a sixth championship, it’s worth noting that he leads all active drivers at Dover with six wins in 19 starts, including three of the last five (both spring and fall dates), and led over 200 laps here in May. Friday’s first practice session at Dover was paced by Paul Menard, while Mark Martin was fastest in Happy Hour. Jeff Gordon, second-fastest in final practice, was the fastest among Chase contenders and has four Dover wins. The NASCAR Cup Series has been racing at Delaware’s “Monster Mile” concrete racetrack since 1969.
Safe Bet: (odds of less than 10/1)
• Kyle Busch (5/1): Busch won here in June of ’08 and May of ’10 and finished 4th at Dover earlier this year. He ran in the top-5 in first practice on Friday and also had the fifth-best ten consecutive lap average.
Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
• Matt Kenseth (14/1): Kenseth won here in May from a 24th-place starting spot and also won at Dover in 2006. In his past 11 Dover starts, Kenseth has only finished outside the top-5 three times. He was second on the speed chart in Friday’s morning practice session. [ad-8757089]
Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)
• AJ Allmendinger (60/1): Though AJ has never won a Sprint Cup race, he has had some good performances at Dover, finishing 7th in the fall race in 2009 and 10th in 2010. He also ran in the top 10 in both practice sessions Friday and had the eighth-best consecutive ten lap average. AJ’s best finish this season was a 5th at Charlotte in May.
Summary:
There is a 40% chance of rain in Dover on Saturday, when qualifying is supposed to take place, and a 30% chance on race day. If qualifying is rained out, Paul Menard and Matt Kenseth would start on the front row. Six of the last seven Dover race winners started in the top 10, so keep an eye on qualifying results Saturday.
