WORLD SERIES PREVIEW
The Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays may play to low television ratings but that doesn’t mean we won’t see stellar and exciting baseball.
The Sportsbook.com odds for the opening game are Even. The Series odds are Philadelphia +125, Tampa Bay -145.
This matchup starts with the two skippers, Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel. Both are long-time baseball men, entrenched in playing the right way. All aspects of the game are used and instead of playing it by the book, each takes calculated risks (used to be called hunches), unafraid to change up the lineup or move starting pitchers around.
These two teams are remarkably similar in many areas. The Rays led the Major Leagues in steals with 142, with the Phils six behind at 136. Philadelphia was 9th in runs scored at 799 and Tampa Bay was four spots lower at 774.
Tampa Bay has the edge in starting pitching, with all their starters having pitched well in the postseason. Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.54 ERA) and James Shields (15-10, 3.57 ERA) will be the opening starters for Games 1 and 2 at Tropicana Field, where the Rays were 29-7 when this duo threw the opening pitch.
Matt Garza (13-10, 3.67 ERA) won two games in the ALCS proving his skill and Andy Sonnanstine (8-5 on the road) has acquitted himself well in two postseason outings.
Philadelphia has to piece things together more than Tampa Bay. Phillies ace Cole Hamels (17-10, 2.92 ERA) can be dominating and he is on top of his game right now allowing just 13 hits and three runs in 22 postseason innings. He is the Game 1 starter.
Brett Myers (12-13, 4.59 ERA) is hot and cold and Jamie Moyer has been dreadful in two post-season appearances, allowing eight runs in 5 1/3 innings, being the only pitcher to suffer a loss for Philadelphia. Joe Blanton has been pretty decent and the Phils have won his last six starts.
The bullpens are similar, yet very different. Maddon does have a closer in Dan Wheeler, but has shown he will ride a hot pitcher in the right situation like David Price in Game 7 against Boston. If Price can stay as dominant, he would help immeasurably against lefty bats Howard and Chase Utley.
The Phillies have excellent set-up men, all leading to closer Brad Lidge who can slam the door late in games. If Philly can get to the late innings with a lead, they should be able to win each contest.
Note that Tampa Bay had the best home record in baseball and Philadelphia the second best road mark.
StatFox Take: Philadelphia has an intangible the last several National League teams have not, power. They hit 214 home runs during the regular season, proving they can score runs in bunches. In the last 25 World Series games, the AL has out-homered the NL 25-10. For Philadelphia to win, Hamels has to win two games, and one starter and the bullpen will have to pick up the other two.
Tampa Bay has enthusiasm and talented young players. The Rays are unencumbered by expectations, thus should feel less pressure. Tampa has better starting pitching and has won three of five games on the road in October. If the home run hitting keeps up, this will be a tough club to beat four times.
Recently, most Fall Classic’s have been far from it, this one could go seven. With Tampa Bay being so strong at home, we’ll give them the nod, ironically earning that edge with Scott Kazmir being the winning pitcher at the All-Star Game.
Thursday October 23
Philadelphia (Myers) at Tampa Bay (Shields) 8:29 EDT
Saturday October 25
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Philadelphia (Moyer) 8:35 EDT
Sunday October 26
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Philadelphia (Blanton) 8:28 EDT
Monday October 27
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia if necessary
Wednesday October 29
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay if necessary
Thursday October 30
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay if necessary
Offensive – Playoffs
Runs scored Philadelphia 4.4 Tampa Bay 5.8
Home Runs Philadelphia 10 Tampa Bay 22
Slugging Ptc. Philadelphia .431 Tampa Bay .508
Walks Philadelphia 34 Tampa Bay 37
On base Ptc. Philadelphia .335 Tampa Bay .335
Pitching & Defense
ERA Philadelphia 3.19 Tampa Bay 3.52
Strikeouts Philadelphia 74 Tampa Bay 85
Walks Philadelphia 35 Tampa Bay 45
WHIP Philadelphia 1.32 Tampa Bay 1.32
Errors Philadelphia 4 Tampa Bay 6
Note – Tampa Bay has played 11 postseason games and Philadelphia nine.
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