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MLB Betting – Chicago vs. Tampa Bay Preview & Pick

Shea weighs in with his MLB Free Pick for tonight. It’s the Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays matching up at Tropicana Field. The Rays are currently 110-moneyline favorites…

Thursday MLB Baseball Picks: White Sox vs Rays

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MLB Betting – White Sox vs. Rays Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, April 21, 2011
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Broadcast: CSN, SUN
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: White Sox -1.5 (+150), Rays +1.5 (-170)
Spread: Rays -110
Over/Under: 8
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Chicago White Sox (7-10 through April 19)
Gavin Floyd (1-1, 4.29)

The American League Central couldn’t get more topsy-turvy this season. The Indians and Royals are on top while teams like the White Sox, who were expected to make a major playoff push this season, are scuffling.

Chicago seems like one of the more snake-bitten teams in baseball so far this season. Some of its hitters are struggling – namely, Adam Dunn – but it’s still fielded a top-10 scoring offense this season. The White Sox’s starting staff has been fine, too. It’s the bullpen that is really letting the Pale Hose down. Though Sergio Santos seems next in line for saves, Ozzie Guillen recently said the team “has no closer.”

Gavin Floyd will take the hill on Thursday and can only hope he gets enough run support that his bullpen won’t blow any lead. He’s been hot and cold this season – allowing four, zero and six runs in his three starts. But his track record against Tampa Bay is excellent. Floyd is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 29 innings against the Rays in his career.

Tampa Bay Rays (8-9 through April 21)
Jeff Niemann (0-2, 6.32)

Here come the Rays! Tampa Bay is quickly doing everything in its power to erase its rocky start. Through Tuesday’s action, the Rays had won seven of their last eight games. Everyone seems to be contributing to the surge. Sam Fuld is hitting his brains out; David Price is his usual ace self. Even more encouraging is that Evan Longoria hasn’t returned from injury yet.

One of the only guys not pulling his weight is Jeff Niemann, who is winless over his first three starts and has allowed four homers in just 15.2 innings pitched. He was better his last time out, however, allowing three runs and striking out six in seven innings for a no-decision.

MLB Trends:

CHW are 12-3 in their last 15 Thu. games.
Under is 37-14 in CHW last 51 on astroturf.
Over is 7-3 in CHW last 10 Thu. games.
TB are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
Under is 16-5 in TB last 21 on astroturf.
Under is 38-13-1 in TB last 52 home games.
Under is 41-20 in the last 61 meetings.

The pick:

The OVER feels like a good play for this game. Both pitchers love serving up the long ball; Niemann has allowed six homers in 28 career innings against Chicago and Floyd has allowed six in 29 innings. I think the winner comes down to which team is better equipped to mash the other pitcher.

The two Tampa hitters with the best history against Floyd are Longoria and Johnny Damon, both of whom are injured. Gordon Beckham (.625) and Paul Konerko (2 HR, 13 AB) have Niemann’s number.

The White Sox should slow down Tampa’s momentum on Thursday.

White Sox vs Rays prediction: White Sox 8, Rays 4

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.