Wednesday MLB Baseball Picks: Twins vs Yankees
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MLB Betting – Twins vs Yankees Preview & Pick
Date: 4:05PM ET, Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Broadcast: ESPN, YES
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Yankees -160
Over/Under: 10.5
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Minnesota Twins (1-3 through April 4)
Carl Pavano (0-1, 15.75)
It’s clearly early in 2011 but, so far, the Minnesota Twins look like anything but a team poised to repeat as American League Central champs. Part of the reason: the top of their rotation, featuring Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano, flopped early against the power-hitting Toronto Blue Jays.
Pavano was particularly awful. The normally efficient right-hander walked two, served up three homers and allowed eight runs, seven earned, in just four innings. Though he struggled when he pitched for the Yankees, Pavano’s career record against them isn’t horrible. He’s 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over four starts.
New York Yankees (3-1 through April 4)
Freddy Garcia (No record)
So far, so good for the New York Yankees. They were picked as a bust team among many pundits but have started smoothly, going 3-1 over their first four games. The key so far: every hitter that was a supposed question mark is delivering. 
Mark Teixeira, a notoriously slow starter, already has three homers and seven RBI. Alex Rodriguez hardly looks old, batting .357 with two homers. Jorge Posada is taking to his new DH role nicely (.286, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Russell Martin looks rejuvenated as the Yankees’ new starting catcher (.429, 1 HR, 3 RBI).
Wednesday, however, will be an interesting test for the Bronx Bombers. Their Achilles’ heel is supposedly the back end of their rotation. We’ll get our first look at the very back when veteran Freddy Garcia takes the hill. Last year, Garcia showed that he can be an OK innings eater on a team that gives him good run support. He had a 4.64 ERA and gave up 23 homers in just 157 innings with the White Sox but went 12-6. So maybe the slugging Yanks are a good fit.
MLB Trends:
MIN are 4-14 in their last 18 overall.
Under is 20-6-2 in MIN last 28 Wed. games.
MIN are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
NYY are 55-20 in their last 75 Wed. games.
Over is 19-7-1 in NYY last 27 overall.
Over is 19-7-1 in NYY last 27 on grass.
MIN are 19-58 in the last 77 meetings.
MIN are 14-37 in the last 51 meetings in New York.
The pick:
I’m not sure a trip to the Bronx is just the medicine Minnesota needs. The Twinkies are 8-28 against the Yankees over the last four seasons, including playoffs. Sending a homer-prone pitcher with already-shaken confidence into a hitter’s park doesn’t help. Minnesota has plenty of power, too, and should touch ’em all a couple times against Garcia. But I think the Yankees will outduel the Twins in this one, possibly with their superior bullpen being the difference-maker.
Twins vs Yankees prediction: Yankees 9, twins 6
