Thursday MLB Baseball Picks: Twins vs Rays
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MLB Betting – Twins vs Rays Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, April 14, 2011
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Broadcast: FSNO, SUN
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
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Minnesota Twins (4-6 through April 12)
Carl Pavano (1-1, 6.00)
Which Carl Pavano will show up when the Twins visit Tampa Bay on Thursday? It was Mr. Hyde in the big righty’s Opening-Day start against the Jays, when he allowed seven earned runs and three homers in four innings. It was Dr. Jekyll in his followup against Oakland, when he held the A’s to one run over eight innings en route to the win.
Pavano’s splits suggest the bad version may be more likely. April is his traditionally his worst month; his April ERA is 4.76. Pavano has also been mediocre at Tropicana Field in his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and an uncharacteristic eight walks over 22 innings.
If the Twinkies want to get going, they’ll have to rediscover their power stroke. No Minnesota player had more than one homer through the team’s first 10 games. Justin Morneau’s recovery from post-concussion syndrome is going slowly; through Tuesday, the slugger was batting .222 with two RBI on the year.
Tampa Bay Rays (3-8 through April 12)
Wade Davis (0-2, 4.38)
Could Tampa finally be righting the ship after a disastrous 1-8 start? Two straight wins at Fenway Park are pretty uplifting. Next, the Rays will have to solve the conundrum that is Tropicana Field. They’re 0-5 at home this season. 
Wade Davis, fresh off a contract extension, will get the ball on Thursday. Davis hasn’t been horrible so far, going six or more innings in each start, but he’s had no run support. With Evan Longoria still on the DL, he’ll be hard-pressed to get an improvement in that department.
MLB Trends:
MIN are 3-10 in their last 13 road games.
MIN are 6-18 in their last 24 overall.
MIN are 2-7 in Pavanos last 9 Thu. starts.
TB are 1-11 in their last 12 home games.
Under is 21-5 in TB last 26 overall.
TB are 3-9 in their last 12 overall.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.
The pick:
The OVER may be a good idea, whatever number it may be. Wade Davis really struggles against Minnesota, with 10 earned runs and four homers allowed in just 10.1 innings in his career against them. One guy who took him deep is Morneau. Maybe a start against Davis will boost his confidence? The other, Jim Thome, is 2 for 2 with a pair of homers against Davis.
Given Pavano’s so-so history against Tampa, the Rays should find a way to score some runs, too, but I like Minnesota to outslug the home team on Thursday.
Twins vs Rays prediction: Twins 7, Rays 4
