MLB Betting – Rockies vs Dodgers Preview & Pick
The Colorado Rockies are out of the National League West hunt. Right? Right!?
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MLB Betting – Rockies vs Dodgers Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, August 26, 2011
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast: ROOT, FSPT
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Dodgers -128
Over/Under: 7.5
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Colorado Rockies (63-68)
Esmil Rogers (6-2, 6.00)
Can we be so sure? We’ve seen what this team can do when it gets momentum in late August and early September. The Rockies enter Friday’s action having won five straight games, scoring at least five runs in every contest. All those wins came at cushy Coors Field, however. Can Colorado keep the streak alive on the road?
According to Esmil Rogers’ record, the Rockies can. The guy has insane run support; his 6.00 ERA to accompany his 6-2 record is not a typo. Rogers is also 5-1 on the road this season with a more respectable 4.33 ERA.
Personally, I can’t figure this guy out. His numbers suggest he’s quite terrible. He allows tons of hits and walks lots of guys (including seven batters two starts ago). He sucks! Yet Rogers doesn’t seem to lose. The Dodgers tagged him for four runs on 12 hits in six innings in his last outing but Colorado still won the game.
Los Angeles Dodgers (60-69)
Ted Lilly (7-13, 4.58)
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp have to be pretty upset with their Dodger teammates. Both guys are having seasons for the ages, enough to warrant Cy Young and MVP consideration, respectively, but their efforts are wasted. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
The reason: important cogs like Ted Lilly have been major disappointments this season. Lilly’s strikeout rate is still decent and his control hasn’t been horrible – but the guy can’t keep the ball in the park. He has 27 homers allowed in just 149.1 innings. Even at a pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium, he’s been tagged for 15 taters this year.
Lilly has a 7-2 lifetime record against Colorado; he’s also unbeaten in three outings against the Rockies this season.
MLB Trends
Over is 8-1 in COL last 9 overall.
Over is 8-1 in COL last 9 on grass.
Under is 7-2 in COL last 9 Fri. games.
Over is 6-2-1 in LA last 9 home games.
Over is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings.
MLB Free pick:
Do you feel lucky? Esmil Rogers sure does. On paper, the Dodgers make more sense, as there’s more evidence to support them. Lilly does have strong numbers against them. But there’s something about (a) the way the Rockies play when Rogers pitches and (b) the way they’re playing in general lately.
The Dodgers are toast in the West but the Rockies are still alive…barely. I’m also flat-out afraid to bet against Rogers, as it doesn’t seem to matter how poorly he pitches. So I say give Colorado a go on the road.
Rockies vs Dodgers prediction: Rockies 6, Dodgers 4
