Wednesday MLB Baseball Picks: Cincinnati vs Philadelphia
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MLB Betting – Reds vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: May 25, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: FSOH, CSN
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from BetUS.com
Money Line: Phili -200
Over/Under: 7
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Cincinnati Reds (26-23 through May 24)
Homer Bailey (3-1, 2.08)
The Cincinnati Reds’ victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday snapped a six-game losing streak. The problem clearly hasn’t been offense for Cincy; Joey Votto has his OPS at its cushy spot above 1.000, Jay Bruce is finally on track for that 30-homer season and Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips have provided nice power-speed combinations.
But almost the entire Reds rotation has imploded. Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood’s ERAs are well north of 5.00. Mike Leake is back in the minors. Even promising Aroldis Chapman has a hideous 20 walks in 13 innings.
However, Home Bailey has been an exception. The former top prospect finally seems to be delivering on his considerable promise, posting a 0.88 WHIP and walking just four batters in 26 innings so far.
Philadelphia Phillies (29-19 through May 24)
Cliff Lee (3-4, 3.37)
How excited are Cliff Lee and the Phillies to have Chase Utley and Dominic Brown joining the lineup? The starting staff has held the fort all season, keeping the Phillies in first place, but it’s time for the team’s 20th-ranked offense to join the party.
Through his first two games since returning from a knee injury, Utley is batting .111; through three games since getting the call to the big leagues, Brown his at .100. So it’s clear that both guys will need some time to get comfortable.
That means Lee may have to be stellar against the Reds on Thursday afternoon. His strikeout rate is through the roof (78 in 66.2 innings) but he has 15 walks over that span after walking 18 batters in more than 200 innings last season.
MLB Trends:
Over is 9-2-1 in CIN last 12 overall.
Over is 9-2-1 in CIN last 12 on grass.
CIN are 3-7 in their last 10 Wed. games.
Under is 7-2-2 in PHI last 11 overall.
Under is 7-2-2 in PHI last 11 on grass.
Under is 6-2-2 in PHI last 10 home games.
CIN are 9-23 in the last 32 meetings.
The pick:
As great as Bailey has been this season, he’s had it easy schedule-wise, drawing the lowly Astros twice and the Cubs in three of his four outings The Phillies’ bats are due to wake up and should be a bigger challenge for him. The Reds have dangerous bats – but their biggest power threats, Votto and Bruce, are lefties. Lefties are batting .215 off Lee this season. Also, Lee has a 2.31 home ERA versus 4.55 on the road this season.
I think the statistical trends point to a Philly win on Thursday.
Reds vs Phillies prediction: Phillies 4, Reds 3
