Sunday MLB Baseball Picks: Reds vs Cardinals
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Sunday Night Baseball Betting: Reds vs Cardinals Preview & Pick
Date: Sunday, April 24, 2011
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: ESPN
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
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Cincinnati Reds (10-9 through April 21)
Sam LeCure (0-1, 4.15)
The Cincinnati Reds have had a revolving door of youngsters at the back end of their rotation over the last few seasons and the results have been, well, predictably unpredictable. Take Sam LeCure. He had just six big-league starts to his name entering the 2011 season. His first two this season were quite solid; he allowed just three runs over 11 innings and struck out 14 despite walking four. Then, on April 19, LeCure got rocked for nine hits, five runs and four homers over 5.1 innings – yet didn’t walk a batter. Go figure.
St. Louis Cardinals (10-9 through April 21)
The longballs are a concerning sign for LeCure, who has now served up 10 in 65.1 career innings, because the St. Louis Cardinals have been tearing the cover off the ball lately. 
It started with Lance Berkman’s tear last week but Albert Pujols has also awakened and Colby Rasmus is hitting .351 through Thursday. The Cards lead the majors with a .291 team average and are second with an .812 OPS.
The Cards haven’t officially named a starter for Sunday night but it will in all likelihood be Jake Westbrook (1-2, 9.82). The soft-tosser has allowed seven-plus runs in two of his four starts this season; opponents are batting .361 off him.
MLB Trends:
Under is 29-14-9 in CIN last 52 Sun. games.
CIN are 2-6 in LeCures last 8 starts.
CIN are 2-6 in LeCures last 8 starts on grass.
STL are 13-3 in their last 16 Sun. games.
Over is 8-3-1 in STL last 12 overall.
Over is 8-3-1 in STL last 12 on grass.
CIN are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
The pick:
The signs point to a blowout as we should see two struggling pitchers face off on Sunday night. I like the Reds to edge St. Louis for a few reasons. For one, even though LeCure is homer-prone, he’s at least a relative unknown, having faced the Cards just once his career. He could have deception on his side. Secondly, Westbrook has been brutal at home this season and he’s facing the majors’ highest-scoring team in Cincinnati. Reigning National League MVP Joey Votto has picked up where he left off last season, hitting .418 in 2011.
Considering that the Cardinals’ bullpen situation is also murky with Ryan Franklin losing his job to Mitchell Boggs and/or a committee, I think the Reds can edge the Cards in a Sunday-night slugfest.
Reds vs Cardinals prediction: Reds 7, Cardinals 5
