Friday MLB Baseball Picks: Red Sox vs Angels
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MLB Betting – Red Sox vs Angels Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, April 22, 2011
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, CA
Broadcast: NESN, FSW
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Angels -105
Over/Under: 7 -110
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Boston Red Sox (6-11 through April 20)
Jon Lester (1-1, 3.20)
The Boston Red Sox have certainly improved after their 2-10 start, winning four of five, but they’re far from out of the woods. They’ve still won just a single road game all season. They’re getting inspired offensive performances from role players like Jed Lowrie (.462? Really?) but their hyped new imports, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, haven’t contributed much yet. Crawford in particular has been awful, hitting a pathetic .149 through his first 16 games.
So it remains to be seen if Jon Lester will get the run support he needs Friday in Anaheim. Traditionally, Lester is a slow starter, but he’s been surprisingly effective this April. Over his last three outings, Lester has allowed just four earned runs with no homers in 20 innings. Traditionally, however, he’s been horrible against the Angels, sporting a 5.86 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over five career starts.
Los Angeles Angels (12-6 through April 20)
Dan Haren (4-0, 1.16)
The Angels have their detractors this season but they’re off to a sizzling start because their top two pitchers, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, have been better than anyone in baseball. They’re a combined 9-0. Weaver is the first pitcher ever to win five games by April 20. 
Poor Haren would be the talk of baseball if it weren’t for Weaver. He has just two walks and an unbelievable 0.65 WHIP through five outings. Haren has a solid 3.21 ERA against Boston in his career but is just 2-5. Where’s the run support?
MLB Trends:
BOS are 2-10 in their last 12 road games.
Over is 16-5-3 in BOS last 24 Fri. games.
Over is 6-2-1 in BOS last 9 games following a win.
Over is 7-1-1 in LAA last 9 games following a loss.
LAA are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.
LAA are 7-2 in their last 9 games on grass.
BOS are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
The pick:
As dominant as Haren has been, the Red Sox have a few players who specialize in pounding him. David Ortiz is a .412 lifetime hitter with three homers in 17 at-bats against Haren. Adrian Gonzalez slugs .500 with a pair of homers off Haren.
Though Lester has struggled against guys like Torii Hunter (.500) and Howie Kendrick (.375) traditionally, they don’t hit for power off him. Vernon Wells is the only Angels regular with a homer off Lester – and Wells is a .179 hitter against him for his career.
It’s tough to bet against Haren but some team has to touch him up eventually. I think the Red Sox will do just enough to slip past the Angels on Friday night. Look for Big Papi to lead the way.
Red Sox vs Angels prediction: Red Sox 4, Angels 2
