Friday MLB Baseball Picks: Rays vs Blue Jays
The best Sportsbook for America’s Pastime is BetUS.com! – From MLB teasers to parlays, from futures to wacky props, BetUS adds more excitement – CLICK HERE NOW + GET $75 FREE FOR MLB BETTING!
MLB Betting – Dodgers vs Marlins Preview & Pick
Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Broadcast: KCAL, FSFL
Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida Marlins Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: LA -126
Over/Under: 7.5
CLICK here for INDEPTH MLB ATS Stats for this matchup —>
Bet now at BETUS —>
Los Angeles Dodgers (12-11 through April 24)
Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.00)
The Dodgers deserve credit for keeping their heads above .500 so far this season. On paper, it doesn’t look possible. They’re 20th in baseball in runs scored and their usually stellar pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA, 25th-best in the majors.
However, a closer look shows that the Dodgers are better than the numbers suggest. Most of their struggles can be blamed on atrocious work by their bullpen. In fact, Kenley Jansen has allowed as many runs in 10.1 relief innings (11) as Tuesday’s probable starter, Clayton Kershaw, has over five starts and 33 innings this season. So the Dodger starters aren’t to blame.
Kershaw’s career numbers over two starts against the Marlins are a microcosm of his career. He’s unhittable, with a .208 opponents average, 2.08 ERA, no homers allowed and 15 strikeouts over 13 innings, but he beats himself, with seven walks over those 13 innings. 
Kershaw will hope for continued run support from current National League batting leader Matt Kemp (.402) and Andre Ethier, who is riding a 21-game hitting streak.
Florida Marlins (13-7 through April 24)
Chris Volstad (1-1, 6.60)
The Marlins have battled their way to an impressive 13-7 start through Sunday and that’s no thanks to their offense. Logan Morrison was hitting but is out with a sprained foot. Superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez is batting a paltry .182 with no homers through 18 games.
The pitching staff has really carried the load for Florida. The top three of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez have been outstanding. But the bottom of the rotation, including Volstad, has struggled. Volstad has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back stars.
MLB Trends:
Over is 7-0-1 in LA last 8 road games.
Over is 5-1-2 in LA last 8 games following a loss.
Over is 15-5-3 in LA last 23 overall.
Under is 9-4 in FLA last 13 overall.
Over is 8-1 in Volstads last 9 home starts.
Over is 12-5-1 in Volstads last 18 starts overall.
Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
The pick:
It seems downright irresponsible to bet on the Marlins in this game. Their offense is struggling and they’re facing a lights-out pitcher in Kershaw. Volstad has allowed five homers in just 29.1 innings against the Dodgers in his career – including one to Kemp and two to Casey Blake. I like the Dodgers to knock him around a bit and give Kershaw the run support he needs.
Dodgers vs Marlins prediction: Dodgers 5, Marlins 3
