Tuesday MLB Baseball Picks: Brewers vs Phillies
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MLB Betting – Brewers vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: FSWI, WB17
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Phili -230
Over/Under: 7.5 110
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Milwaukee Brewers (7-8 through April 17)
Randy Wolf (1-2, 4.32)
Expectations were sky-high for the retooled Milwaukee Brewers entering the 2011 season. Everyone knew they had the big bats but it was the pitching additions that were expected to make a big difference. Shaun Marcum has started strongly but Zach Greinke (ribs) still isn’t healthy enough to pitch for Milwaukee.
That means the existing Brewer hurlers, like Randy Wolf, have to hold the fort. Wolf has started fairly well, striking out 20 batters in 16.2 innings – including 10 guys his last time out. But Brewer fans and bettors have to sweat any time Wolf travels to Philly.
Wolf is 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA and five homers allowed in just 30 innings against the team that drafted him. Several different Phillies have gotten to Wolf in the past, including Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez, but no one hammers him like Carlos Ruiz. The Phillies catcher bats .625 with a homer , three doubles and five RBI over eight at-bats against Wolf. 
Philadelphia Phillies (10-4 through April 17)
Roy Halladay (2-0, 1.23)
It’s business as usual for Roy Halladay and the National League East-leading Phillies so far. Doc has been his usual dominant self on the mound, striking out 22 guys in 22 innings and walking just three guys over his first three outings.
It’s worth noting, however, that the Brewers are a rare team that has pounded Halladay in the past. He’s allowed a whopping five homers in just 13 innings against them over two starts. One of those bombs belongs to Prince Fielder, who is knocking in runs at a prolific rate in his contract year. But the guy who really owns Halladay is Corey Hart – and he’s on the DL with an oblique strain.
MLB Trends:
MIL are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
Under is 8-1 in Wolfs last 9 road starts.
Under is 7-3 in Wolfs last 10 on grass.
Over is 6-2-1 in PHI last 9 home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in PHI last 8 games following a loss.
PHI are 42-17 in their last 59 overall.
MIL are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
The pick:
With Prince in the lineup, I do expect the Brewers to cash in a few runs off Halladay. But too many Phillies have Wolf’s number. I see the Phillies outslugging the Brewers on Tuesday.
Brewers vs Phillies prediction: Phillies 6, Brewers 4
