Friday MLB Betting – Brewers vs Marlins Preview & Pick
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MLB Betting – Brewers vs Marlins Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, June 3, 2011
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Broadcast: FSWI, FSFL
Milwaukee Brewers at Florida Marlins Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Marlins -129
Over/Under: 7.5
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Milwaukee Brewers (30-26)
Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.43)
It took a while, but the Brew Crew is finally where most of us thought it would be in the standings. It’s easy to see why: the pitching has caught up to the hitting. Shaun Marcum has been dealing all season long but Zack Greinke’s return from injury and Yovani Gallardo’s return to brilliance have made a huge difference.
At the back of the rotation, Randy Wolf has been a better-than-adequate innings eater. Homers will always be a bugaboo for him and he takes s major beating once in a while but seven of his 11 outings have been quality starts.
Can Wolf survive a trip to Florida? He has a 5.93 lifetime ERA against the Marlins, allowing a whopping 22 homers in 109.1 innings.
Florida Marlins (31-23)
Ricky Nolasco (4-1, 3.82)
The Florida Marlins have an impressive record at 31-23 considering they’ve played much of the 2011 season with one hand tied behind their collective back.
Hanley Ramirez, their superstar shortstop, hasn’t been right all year. This week he finally revealed that he’d been playing through back pain. I wouldn’t count him cracking Florida’s lineup Friday night. Also, Marlins ace Josh Johnson is on the DL with a shoulder injury.
That puts the onus on guys like Ricky Nolasco to pick up the slack. Ricky has just one loss in 11 outings this season – and it came in his last start. The Dodgers blasted him for 15 hits and eight runs in just five innings. That start alone inflated Nolasco’s stats to mask what has been a solid season.
MLB Trends:
Under is 8-2-1 in MIL last 11 road games.
MIL are 4-12 in their last 16 road games.
MIL are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
FLA are 7-2 in their last 9 Fri. games.
Under is 10-3-2 in FLA last 15 Fri. games.
Over is 16-5 in Nolascos last 21 home starts.
MIL are 7-23 in the last 30 meetings in Florida.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Florida.
The pick:
Like Wolf, Nolasco is a homer-prone pitcher. And he really struggles against the Brewers’ big boppers. Ricky has allowed 17 runs in 17.2 innings against Milwaukee in his career (8.66 ERA). Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and the streaking Corey Hart have all taken him deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if both Wolf and Nolasco struggled Friday but I think Nolasco will be worse given his ugly track record against the Brew Crew.
Brewers vs Marlins prediction: Brewers 7, Marlins 5
