Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago White Sox and Cubs have more in common than a state address this season. Both teams had high expectations for 2010 – especially the White Sox – but both teams have fallen on their faces.
Maybe a passionate inner-city Sunday night matchup could be the wakeup call they need.
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Sunday, June 13, 8:05 p.m. ET
Chicago White Sox (28-33, 3rd place in AL Central)
Chicago Cubs (27-35, 3rd place in NL Central)
It’s been a strange season for Ted Lilly. He’s allowed half as many runs as counterpart Gavin Floyd yet has fewer wins.
Gavin Floyd (2-6, 6.18)
Ted Lilly (1-5, 3.28)
On one hand, it’s beyond time to panic for the White Sox regarding Gavin Floyd. After all, they depended on him to be a rock in the middle of the rotation after his breakout 2009 campaign and he’s been anything but in 2010. On the other hand, Floyd has been one of baseball’s least lucky pitchers this year; his opponents’ batting average on balls in play is .369.
That number makes sense considering that his walk, strikeout and homer rates are all right around what they were last year.
So while Floyd’s road numbers are extremely ugly (1-4, 6.67 ERA), it’s possible that his luck is about to turn. His last start hinted at that; he allowed no earned runs in six innings against the Tigers, striking out eight.
In fact, he’s allowed three or fewer runs in three of four starts.
While he isn’t getting run support, Ted Lilly seems fully recovered from his offseason surgery now; he’s back to his usual efficient self and has six straight quality starts.
But the Chicago White Sox give him tons of trouble historically. Sure, he’s 5-2 in 10 starts against them, but he has a 5.94 ERA and 13 homers allowed in just 53 innings. 
He can’t seem to keep the ball down against Paul Konerko (.286, three homers in 21 at-bats) or Mark Kotsay (.444 career hitter against Lilly).
I see the Sunday nighter as a good opportunity to make money on the White Sox as a dog.
On the surface, the Cubs seem like the logical choice, but a closer look at the numbers suggest Floyd will keep improving and that Lilly’s bad track record against the Pale Hose will catch up to him.
Gambling Trends:
Chicago White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Chicago White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Chicago Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
Chicago Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago White Sox
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 5-3)
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