Brewers vs. Cardinals Betting Pick / Preview (June. 6)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Sunday night and the Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals….Key trend, St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games…

Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

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The Brewers would’ve hoped this Sunday night’s battle with the St. Louis Cardinals would be a crucial divisional tilt. Instead, they’re fighting to stay out of the basement in the National League Central.

But a win in the Sunday nighter could be a crucial stepping stone back to respectability.

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Sunday, June 6, 8:05 p.m. ET

Milwaukee Brewers (22-32, 5th place in NL Central)
St. Louis Cardinals (31-23, 1st place in NL Central)

The pitching matchup pits breakout rookie star Jaime Garcia against Dave Bush, who was once an intriguing prospect but eventually slipped into mediocrity.

Dave Bush (1-5, 4.99)
Jaime Garcia (5-2, 1.32)

Overall, 2010 has been an extremely rocky season for Dave Bush. His walk rate is worse than it’s ever been – and that’s very alarming for a guy who traditionally relies on good control to be effective. He’s won just once in 11 starts this season.

But his numbers are mildly deceiving. 14 of his earned runs came over four innings in two of those 11 starts.

Bush has allowed three or fewer runs in every other outing this season.

That said, the St. Louis Cardinals haven’t been nice to him in his career. He’s started nine games against them, compiling a 2-6 record and 6.45 ERA.

Pretty much everyone in the current Cards’ lineup has a good history against Bush.

Yadier Molina has three homers in 18 at-bats; Skip Schumaker and Matt Holliday both hit north of .400 against him. Albert Pujols “only” has a .300 lifetime average against Bush.

Worse yet for the Brewers, St. Louis sends a man with a 1.32 ERA to the hill on Sunday.

If it weren’t for Ubaldo Jimenez, Garcia would be dominating the National League ERA race, but he at least has the inside track on Rookie of the Year honors at the moment.

Garcia still walks a fair amount of batters (27 in 61.1 innings, typical for a rookie) but he’s done an amazing job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing one homer in his 10 starts.

He’s also been extremely tough to hit, holding opponents to a .206 average this year.

He cruised past the Brewers the last time he faced them, allowing one run and holding Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder hitless in eight combined at-bats.

Since Garcia is especially strong at home, sporting a 0.72 ERA, Sunday’s matchup screams St. Louis victory.

Gambling Trends:

Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
St. Louis is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 5-3)

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