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Giants vs. Braves Betting Pick / Game 4 Preview (Oct. 11)

Shea weighs in with his MLB Predictions for Game 4 of the 2010 NLDS and the San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games …

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A 1-0 San Francisco win marred by a blown call in Game 1. An extra-innings Braves win punctuated by Rick Ankiel’s dramatic homer in Game 2. A wild ninth-inning rally by the Giants in Game 3. Every game of the Giants/Braves NLDS matchup has been close as can be and we should probably expect nothing less the rest of the way.

Can the Braves stay alive in Game 4? And will the Giants pay for gambling on a rookie tonight?

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Game 4: Tonight, 7:37 p.m. ET
Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) vs Derek Lowe (2010 playoffs: 0-1, 1.69)
MLB odds: Giants +132, Braves -142

Since the Braves are reusing Game-1 starter Derek Lowe tonight, Tim Lincecum is clearly fresh enough to pitch for the Giants, right? Yet they’ve have decided to save him for a potential deciding fifth game in San Francisco and roll the dice on rookie Madison Bumgarner in Game 4.

It’s not like Bumgarner is a slouch. The lefthander comes with first-round draft pedigree and was quite impressive as a rookie this season. He enters the playoffs at the top of his game, having allowed two or fewer runs in six straight starts. He also was a road warrior this season, going 6-3 with a 1.91 ERA away from AT&T Park.

One school of thought would suggest Bumgarner and the Giants are a risky proposition tonight given Bumgarner’s inexperience. The other suggests he’ll be just fine; he’s a poised youngster and he faces an Altanta lineup that has seriously struggled to generate offense in the 2010 playoffs. Super rookie Jason Heyward is hitless through three games, Derek Lee is batting just .167, Rick Ankiel .200 and Alex Gonzalez .182. Brian McCann has been decent but hit a mediocre .263 against lefties this regular season.

The Braves still have hope with Derek Lowe taking the hill. He was outdueled by Tim Lincecum in Game 1 but was still very effective, surrendering one run and striking out six over 5.1 innings. Like Bumgarner, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in six consecutive outings dating back to the regular season.

Bettors have an extremely tough decision tonight, as plenty of the numbers favor the visiting Giants. Still, I like the Braves to survive and force Game 5. Though their offensive numbers look terrible, they’ve also faced Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. Sooner or later, their bats have to wake up. Against Bumgarner, who has pitched well but doesn’t even have a full big-league season under his belt, I think that will happen tonight. At 56-25, Atlanta had baseball’s best home record this season. Its comfort level at Turner Field won’t evaporate because of one loss.

It’s crucial that the Braves do their damage early. If they carry a tight lead into the ninth, as they did yesterday, they could be in trouble. Closer Billy Wagner’s oblique strain last week knocked him out of the NLDS and his ninth-inning replacement, flamethrowing Craig Kimbrel, wasn’t ready for prime time. But I think they’ll get to Bumgarner early and often enough to hold off San Francisco and send the series back to AT&T for one more game.

NLDS Betting Trends:

San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games when playing San Francisco

Pick: Braves -142

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