College Football Preview – SMU vs Texas Tech
Before College Football Gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this week, we have the Thursday NCAA game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly Football picks for online ncaa football betting action.
2009 Team Records:
Southern Methodist: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Texas Tech: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
SMU Mustangs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sunday September 5 – 3:30PM
Jones AT&T Stadium
SMU (0-0) vs Texas Tech (0-0)
Money Lines: Texas Tech -400, SMU +500
Spread Favourite: Texas Tech -14
Over/Under – 60.5
(odds courtesy of BetUS)
SMU
It seems like June Jones is becoming a bit a of a program builder. After leading Hawaii to a perfect regular season and Sugar Bowl in 2007 he jumped to SMU, a program that hasn’t had much success since the infamous “Death Penalty” of the early ‘80s. His first year was rough with only a single victory but last year he led the team to 8 wins including a bowl victory behind his usual pass happy offense. If he keeps this us he will be in the Big 12 before we know it.
Wherever Jones goes passing success follows. You can chalk up year one in Dallas to systemic adjustments but it is clear that he can coach offense and that in this era a strong passing game can keep you in the game…and make you a little money – they were 7-5 ATSlast year. The offense improved by more than a TD last season and with Kyle Padron returning as QB further improvement can be expected. As a freshman last season he split time with Bo Levi Mitchell but was the far more effective QB passing for more yards with fewer attempts while protecting the ball better. The loss of leading received Emmanuel Sanders will be felt but these types of offenses usually have success plugging in new bodies. 
Although it is not his specialty, the Mustang D also improved significantly last year – by an astounding 10.6 ppg. They were still not top tier by any stretch but have graduated to the middle in C-USA. In this conference any semblance of defense makes a big different but that success may be tough to follow up on without leading tackler Chase Kennemer who was third in C-USA in tackles. They are also missing Rock Dennis who had 5 INTS last year. Thankfully their entire secondary is composed of juniors and seniors.
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are beginning their extreme makeover this year, led by Tommy Tuberville who put together some very good Auburn teams. I know there are many who don’t like ex-coach Mike Leach but he was probably the most successful coach they have ever had and with their high powered passing attack they were fun to watch and hard to beat. A couple of years ago they almost won the Big 12…remember.
Game one for Texas Tech will be interesting because we should be able to get a read on how Tuberville is going to run his squad. He has traditionally been a running game and defense coach but the personnel is in place to continue to bomb away. I suspect it will be a bit of a mix which means that the big scoring days from years past may be a memory – Tech may be a good Under play this season, especially in the early going if oddsmakers are assuming it is business as usual. I wouldn’t look for it here because SMU is going to score some points so to win the Red Raiders will have no choice but to keep up.
Tuberville’s greatest impact should be on the defensive side of the ball. Last year they gave up a very respectable 22.5ppg. They return their top 2 tacklers from last year but their top two sack artists, including Brandon Sharpe who had 15, are gone. The Big 12 is a pass first league these day so to win you have to be able to harass the QB into some bad plays. Tuberville should be able to help the defense make things happen. SMU is going to put the ball in the air plenty of times for Tech to show whether they are going to have any pass rush prowess this season. If not week 1 could be a long one ending in an upset.
The Pick: I really want to go for the upset but instead I will play it safe and say the Mustangs will easily cover the spread, putting a scare into Texas Tech. Take SMU +14.
College Football Gambling Trends
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Mustangs are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games in September.
Mustangs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12.
Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Mustangs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 33 – SMU 30
CHECK OUT OUR College football betting forums today! Join us today and make College football picks against the spread for all Division 1 NCAA Football matchups!
CFB BETTING SEASON PROMO: A 100% match play bonus for 1st Time players Up To $500. Grab Up to $600 In Free MONEY & Picks! CLICK HERE NOW!!! WTF ARE YOU WAITING FOR?
