NFL Week 14 Lock Alert – Schaub, Reeling Texans Host Hasselbeck, Seahawks
Just one month ago, the Houston Texans (5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U) were looking like a likely playoff participant easily en route to recording the first winning season in franchise history.
Now, four weeks – and four consecutive losses – later, the Texans are just trying to get back in the win column while tying the 8-8 regular season record the team has posted in consecutive seasons.
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The Texans will try to snap their four-game skid on Sunday against a Seattle Seahawks (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U) team that has won two straight games and three of five as the team tries to approach respectability itself following a dismal start this season.
Seahawks (+6½) vs. Texans
(O/U) 44½
Sunday, December 13 1:00 PM ET
Key Trends
Seahawks are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
What the Seahawks need to do to win
Play some defense, avoid turnovers and score at least 21 points
The Seahawks have won each of their last two games in large part because they allowed just 17 points in each contest.
In each of Seattle’s last six losses, they allowed at least 25 points and gave up more than 30 points in four of those games.
If the Seahawks are to have any chance at winning this game, they will have to keep Houston’s often-explosive offense in check while avoiding turning the ball over too much and putting some points on the board themselves.
What the Texans need to do to win
Get back on track offensively and stop turning the ball over – Matt Schaub
The Texans have played some pretty good defense throughout their four-game losing streak but have been let down in a big way by their offense.
Houston has held three of their last four opponents to 23 points or less, but has scored 18 points or less in three of those contests themselves.
The only time the Texans allowed more than 23 points – or topped the 20-point plateau themselves – was in the team’s 35-27 home loss to Indianapolis in Week 12.
If the Texans want to win this game, they will have to score more points than the Seahawks and that starts with quarterback Matt Schaub not throwing interceptions like they’ve going out of style.
Schaub has thrown at least two interceptions in three of the last five games while throwing five total picks in Houston’s last four losses. The Texans threw three picks in last Week’s loss with Schaub tossing one, Rex Grossman, another and running back Chris Brown, a third.
Point blank, the Texans have got to stop shooting themselves in the foot with foolish penalties and turnovers.
Analysis: Despite their losing ways, I think this game is an absolute lock in favor of the Houston Texans.
The Seattle Seahawks really aren’t the better team in this matchup and the Houston Texans are totally desperate and playing at home.
Both teams are allowing an identical 22.2 points per game but the Texans average 23.1 points per game compared to Seattle’s 20.2 points per contest.
I know the Seahawks have gone a spotless 5-0 ATS when they play a team with a losing record – but I think they will fall just short of covering the NFL point spread in this matchup.
The Texans have gone an impressive 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and the Seahawks have recorded an uninspiring 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven road games.
Seattle’s best win this season was the team’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville in Week 5. Other than that, the Seahawks haven’t really been that impressive.
I’m taking the Houston Texans to win this game and narrowly cover the spread.
Expert NFL Picks: Texans -6.5 Points
