Looking For Consecutive Wins, Underachieving Vikings Host Lowly Lions
While the Minnesota Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U), have looked nothing like the Super Bowl contenders many thought they would be coming into the 2008 NFL season, their problems are almost microscopic when compared to the Detroit Lions’ (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U).
The Vikings are coming off ’30-27 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday, that they likely shouldn’t have earned as Saints place kicker Martin Grammatica missed the potential game-winner late in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota managed to pull out the victory despite the fact that the Saints held running back Adrian Peterson to just 32 yards on 21 carries. Veteran quarterback Gus Frerotte completed 19 of 36 passes for 222 yards and one touchdown and avoided throwing an interception.
The Vikings also picked off Saints quarterback Drew Brees twice and covered as six-point home underdogs.
The Lions are coming off a dismal 34-7 loss to the Chicago Bears as three-point underdogs in Week 5 as starting quarterback Jon Kitna was benched after going 8-for-16 for 74 yards.
The Lions made Kitna the scapegoat, but backup Dan Orlovsky was no better, going 13-for-23 for just 97 yards and one touchdown. Detroit gained just 54 rushing yards on 13 carries though running back Kevin Smith did manage to find the end zone.
Detroit’s nearly, non-existent defense allowed Bears quarterback Kyle Orton to complete 24 of 34 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns.
The Lions are ranked 28th in both, overall offense, (261.0 ypg) and scoring, (16.5 ppg) while also ranking dead-last in total defense, (429.0 ypg) and 31st in points allowed, (36.8 ppg).
Minnesota ranked in the middle of the pack in almost every offensive statistical category, including total offense, (18th) and scoring, averaging 20.2 points per game, (22nd).
The Vikings are ranked a solid ninth in total yards allowed, (298.4) and have been stellar against the run, allowing just 68.4 rushing yards per contest, (third). The Vikings are allowing 21.8 points per game, (15th).
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks.
Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit’s last 10 games
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
Vikings
Minnesota is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
NFL Odds
Detroit Lions +13½ -110
Minnesota Vikings -13½ -110
Over 46 -110
Under 46 -110
Analysis: Despite the fact that the Detroit Lions are absolutely atrocious, my keen betting sense tells me that they are going to find a way to cover the spread against their NFC North rivals in this matchup.
While the outcome of this contest is not n doubt as the Vikings will undoubtedly win, I smell a cover for the Lions in this matchup.
Take the Lions and the Under NFL Sportsbook bettors.
