NFL Week 5 Free Pick – Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys (-8) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+8)
O/U (42½)
Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET
The Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) may be a bunch of overrated underachievers, but they will have an excellent shot at beating the lowly Kansas City Chiefs (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, 2-1-1 O/U) when they square off at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 1 PM ET.
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Tony Romo completed 25-of-42 passes for 255 yards with an interception for Dallas in its 17-10 loss to Denver in Week 4.
The Cowboys failed to cover the game’s NFL betting odds as a 1-point road favorite while the final score played Under the 43.5-point O/U total.
Matt Cassel completed 15 of 32 passes for 127 yards and two scores in Kansas City’s 27-16 home loss to the Giants in Week 4.
Kansas City failed to cover the game’s NFL betting odds as a 9-point home underdog while the game’s combined score played out as a Push against the 43point O/U total.
Here is a look at this game’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Week 5 Free Pick.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Over is 14-6-2 in Cowboys last 22 games as a road favorite.
Over is 3-0- 1 in Chiefs last 4 games as a home underdog.
NFL Odds
Dallas Cowboys -8 -110
Kansas City Chiefs +8 -110
Over 42½ -110
Under 42½ -110
Analysis: While the Dallas Cowboys clearly aren’t among the elite teams in the NFL, they shouldn’t have many problems beating the lowly Kansas City Chiefs in this contest.
The Chiefs have recorded some absolutely abysmal ATS wagering statistics recently, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
The Cowboys, despite their struggles this season – and quarterback Tony Romo’s major inconsistency – have gone an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an SU loss and an identical 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
While Dallas has gone a disappointing 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, I like them to improve on their 7-3 ATS mark in their last 10 games as a favorite in this contest.
With the Over going a consistent 14-6-2 in Dallas’ last 22 games as a road favorite and 3-0- 1 in Kansas City’s last four games as a home underdog, I also like the Over to play out in this contest.
NFL Week 5 Free Picks: Dallas Cowboys -8 Points/Over 42½ Total Points
