NFL Free Pick Analysis – Veteran Chicago Bears Visit Young Atlanta Falcons
The veteran-laden Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U), have won two straight games in the BetUS Sportsbook while simultaneously covering the spread in both and are beginning to look like a viable contender in the NFC this season.
The young Atlanta Falcons (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U), have alternated wins and losses all season, but are clearly headed in the right direction under first-year head coach Mike Smith, rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and new running back Michael Turner.
Now, the two teams will hook up in an important Week 6 matchup that could determine the postseason fates of each club.
The Bears overwhelmed the downtrodden Detroit Lions 34-7 on Sunday and have generally looked competent on offense under new starter Kyle Orton, a serious upgrade over former starter Rex Grossman.
The Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers on the road, winning 27-24 with Ryan out-performing counterpart, Aaron Rodgers with another solid performance to get his first career road victory.
Chicago is averaging 332.2 total yards per game, (12th), including a solid 126.2 yards per game on the ground and 25.6 points per game, both, good for ninth overall.
Defensively, the Bears are limiting opponents to just 297.6 total yards per game, (eighth), while stuffing the run on a regular basis by holding opposing running backs to just 74.2 rushing yards per game, good for fourth overall. Chicago is also allowing just 17.4 points per contest, (fourth).
Atlanta is averaging an excellent 344.8 total yards per game, (eighth), under their rookie QB while ranking second in the league in rushing yards per game, (180.6) thanks in large part to Turner. Atlanta’s 23.4 points per game ranks 12th overall.
Defensively, the Falcons have some improving to do as they are ranked in the bottom third in total yards, (23rd) passing yards, (22nd) and rushing yards, (20th) allowed. The good news for Falcons fans and backers is the fact that the team is allowing just 21.4 points per fame, good for 14th overall.
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Gambling Free Picks:
Bears
Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Falcons
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta’s last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Atlanta is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing Chicago
NFL Odds
Chicago Bears -2½ -115
Atlanta Falcons +2½ -105
Over 43½ -110
Under 43½ -110
Analysis: Despite playing on the road in this contest, I can emphatically state that the Chicago Bears will not only win this game, but cover the spread for my beloved BetUS NFL Sportsbook betting community. Atlanta’s inability to win two straight games, combined with Chicago stellar run defense and improved offense, sound like the perfect combination for a big road win.
With a solid 2-0-1 ATS road record this season, I say take the Bears to win and cover the spread while keeping the combined score Under the set O/U total for this contest BetUS NFL Sportsbook faithful.
