NFL ‘Lock Alert’ – Broncos Hit Road to Face Pathetic Chiefs
The way the Denver Broncos (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U), are scorching opposing defenses this season, I’m thinking the team should come up with a new motto!
Even an old phrase like, ‘The Best Defense is a Good Offense’ will do for this team.
“It’s nice to give up 32 points and still win the football game,” Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan said following the team’s 34-32 win over the New Orleans Saints last week. “That’s the bottom line, you’ve got to find a way to win.”
The Broncos are clearly finding ways to win – and my beloved BetUS NFL bettors should know that this week’s matchup against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U), has the rock-solid look of a nearly guaranteed ‘lock’ pick despite the fact that the Chiefs have one of the league’s best pass defenses.
The Broncos are averaging 432.0 total yards, (2nd), and a league-leading 38.0 points per game. Blossoming quarterback Jay Cutler is averaging a whopping 301.3 passing yards per game, (third) and the team’s rushing attack isn’t doing too bad either, averaging 130.7 rushing yards per game to rank tenth overall.
Cutler, who completed 21 of 34 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns with one interception, knows the Broncos can’t keep lining on the edge and relying on their high-scoring offense.
“Somebody’s living right in that locker room,” Cutler said. “We’ve got to straighten some stuff offensively and defensively. Special teams played well today, but we’ve got to tighten it up because we can’t keep doing this. We’re getting lucky at the end.”
The Broncos have quite a ways to go defensively as they are allowing a whopping 425.0 total yards per game, (29th) and are ranked dead last in pass defense, allowing 319.0 passing yards per game. Denver is also giving up 28.0 points per contest, 28th overall.
Still, they likely won’t have much trouble against a Chiefs team that is averaging just 258.3 total yards per game, (27th), and a pitiful 10.7 points per game and was beaten soundly by the rebuilding Atlanta Falcons 38-14 on the road on Sunday.
With an extremely shaky situation at quarterback, Kansas City is averaging just 144.7 passing yards per contest, (28th), though the team’s rushing attack has been respectable, ranking 15th overall with an average of 113.7 yards per game.
Kansas City turned to second-year signal caller, Tyler Thigpen, the team’s third starting quarterback in three weeks. Unfortunately, Thigpen, a player I think is better than their planned future starter, Brodie Croyle, threw three interceptions in his first career start.
“I didn’t play up to my expectations,” Thigpen said.
Thigpen’s play aside, the Chiefs have also underachieved immensely on defense, allowing 357.0 total yards per game, (26th). Interestingly enough, Kansas City has fielded one of the league’s best pass defenses so far, ranking fourth overall, limiting opponents to just 153.0 passing yards per game.
Where the Chiefs have really failed is with their run defense, as they are allowing opposing running backs to have had a field day, allowing 204.0 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are also giving up 26.0 points per game, (25th).
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks.
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Broncos are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games on grass.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Over is 7-0 in Broncos last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games in Week 4.
The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
The Home team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
The Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
NFL Odds
Denver Broncos -9½ -110
Kansas City Chiefs +9½ -110
Over 46½ -110
Under 46½ -110
Analysis: Despite being on the road in this contest, NFL betting enthusiasts can bank on the Broncos beating the Chiefs senseless, likely by halftime. I say take the Broncos and the Under in this contest.
