The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.
The Falcons pulled victory from the jaws of defeat against Seattle on Sunday. Now they get a visit from a San Francisco team brimming with confidence and probably actually thrilled not to face the Seahawks once more.
Another rematch to close out the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Houston was embarrassed on their first visit to Foxborough. I expect they will play better but the end result is likely the same.
The Gophers have one loss, back in November at the hands of #1 Duke. Since then they have rattled off 10 victories in a row including three to start Big Ten play. Impressive ones too as they have already conquered ranked team Michigan State and Illinois.
Duke is still among the few unbeaten teams in the nation but with forward Ryan Kelly injured their depth will be tested. The Blue Devils have been eased into ACC play this season with easy victories against weak sister programs Wake Forest and Clemson.
Last week Seattle put an end to Washington’s resurgence. This week they are looking to do the same to the NFC’s top seed in Atlanta.
St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga is usually the best thing about the West Coast Conference. Last year the Gael’s were able to steal some thunder from the Zags beating them in overtime of the WCC tournament.
A rematch of the season opener that San Francisco won at Green Bay…easily. Stakes are obviously higher this time around as both teams look to make it to the Super Bowl.
Ravens won but gave up lots of yards to the Colts who just couldn’t convert when it mattered most. Are they going to be able to have the same success against a Denver team clicking on all cylinders?
This is the SEC kickoff for Alabama, a team in the second tier of the conference but expected to be closer to the top than the bottom. The Crimson Tide team played a tough non-conference schedule.
Crimson Tide vs. Fighting Irish College Football Spread/Handicapping
Well it is finally here. Two big brand names but still debate over whether these are the two most deserving schools (at least for me). Probably a defensive battle but with so much time to prepare who knows
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) vs. #1 Notre Dame (12-0)
Monday January 7
Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL
8:30
Moneyline: Alabama -345, Notre Dame +315 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread: Alabama -9.5
O/U: 40.5
ATS Matchup Stats | Gambling Insight!
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Alabama is probably the most talented team in the nation. They always do well in recruiting rankings and now that mock drafts are the rage they are looking good there too.
The amazing thing is that they almost didn’t make it here. Johnny Heisman knocked them down earlier in the season and the Bulldogs nearly had their number in the SEC Championship.
Both of those teams have a nice mix of offensive talent to challenge their defense…The defense gets a lot of praise but the offense is very good too – they averaged 38ppg.
Its not flashy but the best offensive line in football paved the way for two 1000 yard rushers, Eddie Lacy and freshman T.J. Yeldon both averaged 6.5 yards per carry.
That line also gave QB A.J. McCarron time to complete nearly 70% of his passes. He makes few mistakes too (just 3 interceptions on the season)…Despite the one loss the Crimson Tide are heavy favourites at -9.5.
Alabama has been a poor bet this season at just 6-7 ATS including 1-4 ATS down the stretch.
This could be a tight defensive struggle but it could also be another examples of Bama’s recent dominance.
The last and only undefeated team in the nation is Notre Dame. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Technically you can’t argue with their selection to the Championship game but for me they don’t pass the sight test for me. Their regular season had some nice wins but also some head scratchers, I think only one of their conquests, Stanford, lived up to expectations this season…
Statistically the defense has been a monster with linebacker Manti Te’o gaining lots of attention and finishing second in the Heisman race.
Its the offense led by QB Everett Golson that has everyone questioning this team.
They run the ball alright and have QB Tommy Rees as closer but it is hardly a good offensive team that is likely to struggle against Alabama…In addition to having strong defenses another trait the Irish have in common is a poor ATS record, just 7-6. That has been primarily because of their poor offensive showings.
It affected them as favourites with big numbers but I think it will do the same in this one too.
They might not be able to keep this one close.
Spread Pick: Alabama -9.5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction:
The Irish are not getting much respect this season. They have just one loss and there are 8 teams ahead of them in the rankings who have more including their opponent Cincinnati.
The Cowboys have impressed early this year. They absolutely hammered N.C. State back when many thought they were championship material and they have just two losses on the season.
#21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs Kansas State Wildcats (11-2)
Saturday January 5
Red Bramlage Coliseum – Manhattan, KS
1:30PM
Moneyline: No ML currently listed
Spread: Kansas State -2.5
O/U: No O/U currently listed at Bovada
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They lost their last game to a very good Gonzaga team by just a point and I think they can surprise in the Big 12 if they play consistently, something that has been a problem for this squad in the past.
To say the Cowboys are perimeter oriented is an understatement. Their top 5 scorers are listed as guards and they are fortunate to have two amazing talents in LeBryan Nash and Marcus Smart. Nash has an NBA ready body and the game to match while Smart might be the best freshman in the country. He has a versatile game: third in scoring, second in rebounding and first in assists. He has been the biggest difference maker from last year to this.
Oklahoma State is 7-3-1 ATS this season and is a nice value play this weekend as a small dog. Winning on the road in a major conference like the Big 12 is never easy but I think they can pull of the upset against a scrappy Kansas State that doesn’t have the kind of top level talent the Cowboys do.
Kansas State also has just two losses and one really impressive victory over Florida – their two losses are to top teams Michigan and Gonzaga too by the way. New coach Bruce Weber inherited a nice team that is certainly built to win now even if their talent doesn’t blow you away. In the early going they have been a fantastic defensive team – 15h in the nation giving up just 56ppg. These guys play with great intensity. [ad-6571516]
The Wildcats have a little bit of everything: size, shooting, and Rodney McGruder. McGruder is a swiss army knife providing scoring, rebounding and excellent perimeter defense. The size comes from Jordan Enriquez who is 6’11 and defends the rim while the shooting is from Shane Southwell who is hitting 45% of his three point shots. They have scrapiness too in the form of guard Will Spradling.
K State is perfect at home (7-0) but is an awful 3-6 ATS overall this season. One factor I really don’t like about this team is that they only hit on 65% of their free throws. Even if they are playing with the lead late their sometimes struggles on offense are compounded by failing in this elementary part of the game.
Spread Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5
O/U Pick
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 69 – Kansas State 65
I don’t know how things got weird and a game of this calibre got pushed to this late in the bowl calendar. I do know that there is nothing to like about it. SEC vs BIg East is not a good matchup in this one.
Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) vs Ole Miss Rebels (6-6)
Saturday January 5
Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
1:00PM
Moneyline: Ole Miss -160, Pittsburgh +140 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
O/U: 52
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The Panthers needed to win their final two games to become bowl eligible and they did. In fact they have gone the whole season on two game streaks, losing then winning, creating their current symetrical 6-6 record.
Mostly they are getting it done on the defensive side of the ball as the Panthers are inconsistent on offense at best…
At running back they have a difference maker in Ray Graham. The pint sized senior finally broke through with a 1000 yard season – but with his worst average per carry. He is tougher than he looks and plays well when the team wins.
QB Tino Sunseri has taken a lot of heat over the years but he put up some nice numbers as a senior too including a TD/INT ratio of 19/2…Pitts was 7-4 ATS this season including 5-1 the last two months of the season.
I think the only way you can like this team is as the underdog because you just can’t rely on them too much. That extra half point provides some value though.
Ole Miss also got their bowl qualifying win in the last week of the season, beating in-state rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. They play in the toughest division in college football and held their own this year, losses to Vanderbilt, LSU and Texas A&M were all by 6 points or less. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
This isn’t a great team but with any other schedule they are probably 8-4…
Nothing in particular stands out about Ole Miss talent wise. QB Bo Wallace is alright but throws it too many times to the wrong guys. Former starting QB Randall Mackey gets used running the ball, at receiver and sometimes even throwing the ball too.
It is that kind of versatility that might come in handy with a lot of extra time to prepare…
Though just 6-6 Ole Miss has been a very profitable 9-3 ATS. This is a battle tested team that even though it is not super talented seems to play above its head.
Coach Hugh Freeze is doing a better job than you realize in his first year and it should end with a bowl victory.
Spread Pick: Ole Miss -3.5
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 24 – Pittsburgh 17
The last game of Wild Card weekend will probably be the most compelling. A couple of athletic rookie QBs looking to lead their teams to a championship. I like it.
People want to make a big deal about the Baltimore historical angle for this one but who cares. What is more interesting is whether Ray Lewis is going to let a rookie QB end his career. How much more Luck is left in that horseshoe?
A rematch of the season finale between these two divisional rivals. Now both teams are in win or go home mode, will the Packers be able to corral Adrian Peterson and grab the victory?
