The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.
The Denver Broncos are 1-2 but all of their games have been close, decided by three points or less. Last week they were winning late but Matt Hasselbeck was able to engineer a Titans TD drive in the closing minutes for Tennessee to steal the game.
Minnesota is the most surprising of the group of teams that is currently 0-3. Not because they are any good but because in all three of their games they held double digit leads only to give them up over the course of the second half and lose – most recently to Detroit in overtime.
Nevada certainly doesn’t duck anybody in their non-conference scheduling. This year they have already been waxed by Oregon, lost by a point at Texas Tech and now venture to Boise to resume what used to be a decent WAC rivalry.
The SMU Mustangs have been using some weak competition to straighten out their game after a disappointing opener against Texas A&M. They come into the weekend on a three game winning streak and they have given up just 7 points over the last two games.
The Houston Cougars remain among the unbeaten teams across America after thumping Georgia State 56-0 last weekend. A win over an FCS opponent is hardly something to get overly excited about but quarterback Case Keenum continues to work his way up the all time passing list, passing former BYU QB Ty Detmer for third place all time.
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 25 – 1:00PM
Moneyline:
Spread (ATS): Detroit -4
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5DimesDetroitWow, what a performance by the Lions last week. Their hype machine was already humming but when you throttle a team like they did the Chiefs there was no choice for the media to crank it up a notch. After a brief respite at home they are back on the road to face Minnesota, a familiar opponent in an unfamiliar spot against the Lions – home underdog.
The one thing I would like to see Detroit do before I swallow the Kool-Aid is run the ball better. I love their offensive weapons and as long as QB Matthew Stafford is healthy they have a chance to compete with anybody. Their defense is really taking shape although their performance against Kansas City may be hard to repeat with regularity. This is not a smokescreen, the Lions are definitely a team on the come.
The line on this one has already gone up a half point to -4 on the Detroit side. Odds are it will continue to move until kickoff and I would definitely be willing to bet into it until at least -6.5. The Lions will lose eventually but the way they exceeded even last week’s loft expectations indicated this year’s club are the same old Detroit Lions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
The Vikings are in a very precarious position right now. At 0-2, especially in the NFC Central, their chances of making the playoffs this year are slim. They are expected to lose on Sunday and when I look at their schedule I am not sure who they can feel confident beating. This is surprising given that they still have Adrian Peterson and added Donovan McNabb in the offseason.
Against San Diego they were dominated and against Tampa they dominated, for a half. It is disappointing that a team like Minnesota wilted the way they did in the second half at home. It was the kind of performance that makes you think things might get worse before they get better…leading to the beginning of the Christian Ponder era.
This could be a real changing of the guard game for these two teams. Minnesota has won 13 straight home games against Detroit – a fact you can be sure the Lions staff are using as motivation. Last year these teams also met in week three a 24-10 victory by the Vikings at home where Adrian Peterson went off for a season high 160 yards. They are going to need some of that and then some to keep their streak going this week.
ATS Pick: Detroit -4
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Detroit 31 – Minnesota 21
Tulsa may be just 1-2 but they should feel no shame in being rolled by their in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The task is no easier this week as they travel to Boise to take on yet another top 10 team – on the Smurf Turf where the Broncos almost never lose.
It is hard to tell right now whether UCF’s loss to FIU last week will turn into the category of “a good loss”. They were on the road and lost by only a TD (they gave up a offensive TD with 28 seconds left in the half) to a team that is really hot right now and just might win their league.
Lavell Edwards Stadium – Provo, Utah
Friday September 23 -Moneyline: BYU -150, UCF +130
Spread (ATS): BYU -3
Over/Under: 43
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
ATS Stats Report
What is easy to tell is that they might have beaten themselves with their 10 penalties and unfortunate turnovers. The offense didn’t have a great game but the defense was pretty tight, limiting the dymanic T.Y. Hilton to just 36 yards from scrimmage before he came out of the game.
UCF won the time of possession battle against FIU, grinding away with a running game that was not having much success. They were able to keep that strategy because the game remained close but normally they do a better job than 3 yards per carry. Their elusive QB Jeff Godfrey needs to do a better job being more decisive. He is a run threat but got sacked 8 times. Combined with the penalties there were just too many negative yards plays to get anything going
UCF is a good team and they should be able to rebound against BYU, who has not looked very impressive in the early part of the season. These teams have never played so it is kind of a weird game to get a feel for. UCF is a long way from home and the spread is saying these teams are pretty close talent wise. A straight up win is definitely a possibility.
I am still in shock about BYU’s performance against rival Utah last week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
You never want to lose 54-10, but doing so against a hated rival at home, that is just ridiculous. The even uglier part is that they were winning 10-7 before the wheels came off. You want to think they can bounce back because they are a veteran team who only lost by a point at Texas the week before but sometimes when you lose that badly it can linger a bit. Their mindset for this one is in doubt.
I had high hopes for BYU this season. Conference affiliation, or lack there of aside, they had a lot of talent coming back and an emerging star at QB – plus good coaching. You can look at the Utah game as an anomaly given that they lost 6 fumbles, but they didn’t look good against a weak Ole Miss team or against Texas either. This team just seems to look slow this year. They don’t appear to have any playmakers to fear which makes precision all the more important – and they don’t have it right now.
Whenever you see a three point spread for the home team it is interesting because it usually means the teams are about even. This doesn’t appear to be the case based on what we have seen thus far this season. BYU has struggled on offense averaging just 13ppg. Meanwhile the UCF defense has been solid as usual giving up just 6ppg.
Which ever unit wins the battle should held their team win the game…the smart money seems to be backing UCF
ATS Pick: UCF +3
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: UCF 28 – BYU 20
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The Tar Heels are a perfect 3-0 heading into their first road game of the season. They are already 1-0 in conference play so if they can win this one they will have a serious leg up on the rest of the Coastal Division.
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM
Moneyline: Minnesota -147, Tampa Bay +127
Spread (ATS): Minnesota -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Tampa Bay
The Bucs lost their opener at home against Detroit setting off a slew of pundits who believed they wouldn’t be able to match last year’s success. That may turn out to be true but I wouldn’t leap to that conclusion after what I saw on Sunday. Detroit is a good team. Sure losing the home opener is not a great way to start the season but it is not time to run for the fire exits just yet.
Last year Tampa had great balance pounding the rock with LeGarrette Blount and Josh Freeman tossing it to an emerging set of wideouts. Last week the Lions stuffed the Bucs on the ground and then once the team fell behind they couldn’t stick with it. Freeman was forced to throw the ball more than they like and couldn’t make any big plays (long of 22 yards). They should find it easier sledding against Minnesota on the ground and in the air.
These teams used to meet twice a year but with realignment haven’t played each other since 2008. Tampa has won the last 4 meetings covering each time, spanning all the way back to 2001. The Bucs have also proven to be a great road bet of late on a 13-3-1 ATS tear. As an underdog they are a great play this weekend. Given preseason expectations and last week’s performance I would have installed them as the favourite on Sunday. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
Many were predicting an embarrassing catastrophe last week when Minnesota visited San Diego. Sure they lost the game but San Diego had to shutout the Vikings in the second half and score 17 points of their own to beat them. The really bad news is not the loss but how bad new QB Donovan McNabb looked. The Christian Ponder era might be starting a little ahead of schedule.
If McNabb can’t get his act together it is going to be very difficult for this team to win. In Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson they have a couple of players who can take it to the house on every touch but they need balance for them both to be potent weapons. Blaming McNabb is easy but when you look closer you see a line that is not all that good and a receiving corps that relies too much on big plays – no reliable chain movers..
Despite the fact that Minnesota is the favourite I really don’t think they will challenge in this one. Even though they lost last week I am still bullish on Tampa and Minnesota didn’t show much after the first 20 minutes against San Diego. The only hope for Minnesota is if Peterson has a tremendous day but I don’t see him torching the Bucs.
ATS Pick: Tampa +3
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Tampa 30 – Minnesota 17
Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PMMoneyline: New Orleans -312, Chicago +245
Spread (ATS): New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Chicago
The Chicago Bears surprised by beating the Atlanta Falcons 30-12 in the opener. If you watched the game (it wasn’t pretty) than you know it wasn’t as lopsided as the final score appeared. With the exception of a defensive TD by Atlanta in the 4th quarter all the big plays in the game were made by the Bears. It is unreasonable to think that they can be that explosive the whole season….and it is different playing on the road than at home for sure.
Jay Cutler was pretty good in the opener throwing for more than 300 yards. A third of that yardage came on two plays as the Bears were more explosive than usual (I just couldn’t come up with another word for explosive). They didn’t do too much damage on the ground but were able to get yards when they needed them. The most encouraging thing to take away from last week was the play of the defensive line. Henry Melton and Julius Peppers both had two sacks. They will need to get pressure on Drew Brees to beat the Saints.
Winning at home against a top team from the NFC South is one thing but going into the Superdome and beating the Saints is something altogether different. The Bears may have won 4 in a row against the Saints but the last three have been at home and the fourth was back in 2005 when a guy named Aaron Brooks was the Aints quarterback. A lot has changed since then. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
New Orleans
Thrilling ending to the opener on Thursday night. I am still wondering why Coach Payton thought the smart play was taking the ball out of Drew Brees hands on the final play. It shows confidence in the line and rookie RB Mark Ingram but I think it was also a little bit of him outsmarting himself. Nevertheless they are back at home looking to get back to winning, although a little dinged up.
Last week’s game turned on Marques Colston’s lost fumble. The Saints had little trouble moving the ball but dug themselves too deep a hole to ultimately win the game. Drew Brees was very sharp and with Colston out he will rely even more on spreading the ball around. The running game was pretty ineffective against the Pack and it won’t get much easier against Chicago this week. They use it just to keep the offense honest though.
The Saints are in a great bounce back spot here. They are playing at home and have a couple of extra days to prepare after opening the season last Thursday. This is one of the most explosive offenses in the league and the defense is probably better than it showed against an amped up and very talented Green Bay team. The line is a little heavy at -7.5 but I think it is manageable though there are better bets on the board.
ATS Pick: New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New Orleans 34 – Chicago 23
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM
Moneyline: Detroit -357, KC +275
Spread (ATS): Detroit -9
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Kansas City
Well those pundits who thought the Chiefs record was inflated last year certainly got what they were looking for in week 1 as the Chiefs were pounded by the Buffalo Bills 41-7. It was a sloppy game by Kansas City that felt pretty much over by halftime. The Chiefs did little in the second half to respond which is part of the reason the line on on this one has jumped since it opened. It kind of looked like they were just going through the motions.
There was some concern that QB Matt Cassell might not play last week but he started, he just didn’t have a very good game. He completed 22 passes for a shockingly low 119 yards. You have to move the ball deeper down the field with your passing game, especially if you want to give your running game a chance. Fortunately when the running backs did tote the ball they were pretty effective…the game against Buffalo got out of hand so fast they just couldn’t stick with it.
If you include pre-season the Chiefs have now lost 7 games in row and few are giving them a chance to bounce back this weekend at Detroit. These teams haven’t met since 2007 when their makeup was much different, more importantly they appear to be going in different directions right now and Kansas City’s is not a good one. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Detroit
It was a great win for the Lions at Tampa. With expectations building over the offseason it was important to their pysche that they play well with the win the icing on the cake. With the Chiefs coming to town this weekend they have a great opportunity to show that they are a real threat in the NFC. I hope they won’t regress now that they are actually in the conversation. With a win on Sunday they could easily be 3-0 after next weekend.
Everything went pretty much according to plan for Detroit. Stafford was solid with 300+ yards passing, Calvin Johnson hauled in a couple of TDs and Jahvid Best didn’t get hurt (canned laughter). To get to that next level they need Best to become more of a threat – his longest run was just 9 yards. On defense they did a great job shutting down the Bucs power running game which bodes really well for playing the Chiefs who want to gash opponents on the ground.
The line on this one has really run up throughout the week. It was Detroit – 3.5 to start and now it is as high as -9 in some places. At anything under -7 I was definitely behind the Lions but now it is a little too rich for my blood. The Lions are likely to get steam until they lose a game, then you should be able to get some serious value on them. Right now you might just want to enjoy as a fan.
ATS Pick: KC +9
Over/Under Pick:
Score Prediction: Detroit 31 – Kansas City 24
After two games the Wahawks sit at 1-1 but it is hard to gauge this club right now. They were shutout by Florida State in their opener and followed that up with a 35-7 pasting of Grambling State.
Boise State had little trouble with Georgia in the opener but I am not sure if they were helped in their pursuit of a BCS title game bid by the Bulldogs close loss to South Carolina last week.
There certainly hasn’t been this much buzz about the Detroit Lions in a while. This team was a big winner at the book last season even though they finished 6-10. Now many believe they can finish at .500 or better and challenge for a Wild Card out of the NFC North.
The only positive thing you can say about UTEP’s performance against Stony Brook is that they didn’t give up. The Miners were down 24-10 in the third quarter but managed to force overtime and eventually win it.
UTEP Miners vs SMU Mustangs
Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas, Texas
Saturday September 10 – 7:00PM
Moneyline: SMU -1200, UTEP +925
Spread (ATS): SMU -20
Over/Under: 53
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
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UTEP
They were lucky to even still have a chance to win it given that they rushed for a paltry 36 yards and turned the ball over 4 times…Although maybe it should not have been a surprise.
The Miners struggles on offense were a result of the fact that they are breaking in an almost entirely new offense, even still their performance against Stony Brook was pitiful. The only saving grace was they may have found their QB for the next couple of seasons in JC transfer Nick Lamaison. Hopefully he and the rest of the team might be a little sharper for their first conference test against SMU.
The Miners have had success against SMU – 6-2 since 2003 – including a win as a +6 dog at home last year. This year, as you can tell by the spread, these teams are much further apart. The only advantage for the Miners might be that the Mustangs had their hat handed to them by Texas A&M last week in a game that they were trying to prove the program was inching up the status board. SMU might have trouble getting off the mat.
SMU
I have to admit that I was one of those that thought SMU was ready to take another step this season…but after watching them melt against Texas A&M they appear that they might just be Conference USA good, as opposed to just good. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Perhaps the Aggies were geeked up about heading to the SEC but regardless the Mustangs got nothing done after closing the gap to 20-14, eventually losing 46-14. As much as anything they seemed to lose their confidence.
The Mustang offense is supposed to be formidable but it was pretty meek against Texas A&M. This was supposed to be the year Kyle Padron put it all together but after throwing interceptions on the first two possessions coach June Jones pulled him out of there for backup J.J. McDermott, who breathed a little life into the attack, but it was short-lived.
The question is who gets the nod against UTEP because they may make him look good.
The defense wasn’t expected to be overly stout but with 8 starters returning a better effort was. They were gashed on the ground by A&M’s lethal RB duo and sliced and diced through the air by QB Ryan Tannehill, who looks like a Heisman candidate after that outing.
UTEP is the perfect opponent to get healthy on both sides of the ball so the Mustangs may not be as good as they appear to be after Saturday.
UTEP are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
UTEP are 8-21 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 13-6 in UTEP last 19 road games.
SMU are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
SMU are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
ATS Pick: SMU -20
Over/Under Pick: Over 53
Score Prediction: SMU 45 – UTEP 21
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