Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.
In what has shaped up to be the most intriguing final week of the CFL season in the history of the league, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will shoot for a win and first place in the Eastern Conference and the Calgary Stampeders will hope that a win will carry them to the Western Conference title.
Two teams in search of just their second win of the season meet on Sunday in a clash of the NFC West basement.
One streak will come to an end on Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers travel to Washington to take on the Redskins. For the 49ers, they put an impressive five game win streak on the line and for Washington; they hope to end a three game losing skid.
Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina and Jacksonville are all on byes this week so make sure to make the necessary roster adjustments.
The Seattle Seahawks head to Dallas on Sunday to take on a Cowboys team that was beaten and humiliated last week.
UFC 138 comes our way this weekend and despite the lack of obvious star power, there are some fights with some serious implications on the card. The winners of Leben/Munoz and Pickett/Barao could be in line for title shots in their divisions.
Each week, Dave B will compile a list of Hot and Not Hot players based on their past performances and future matchups.
Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina, Jacksonville are all on byes this week and with the Fantasy Football Regular season heading into its stretch drive it is time to not only find replacements for the players on byes but to add players that could help you from Weeks 12-16!
Each week, the CappersPicks.com fantasy football guru Dave B brings you players you need to be paying attention to – Remember – fantasy football championships are often won by those who live eat and breath fantasy football.
After all of the weekly games are finished be sure to check our waiver wire column, cheatsheets, a who’s hot, and who’s not report plus more in our fantasy football guide.
Date/Time: Sunday, October 30, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, Quebec
Broadcast: TSN
Stampeders vs. Alouettes Betting Lines from betonline.com.
Spread: Alouettes -4 ½
Moneyline: OFF
Over/Under: 56 points
In what is one of two marquee matchups in the CFL in Week 18, the Calgary Stampeders, in desperate need of a win to remain in the hunt for a home playoff game, travel East to take on a Montreal team that fell into a tie for first in the East last week with their 26-25 loss at Winnipeg – in a game that they appeared to be in total control of. Both teams have a lot to play for on Sunday which makes this a very intriguing late-season matchup.
The Calgary Stampeders did their part last week – they beat a reeling Saskatchewan team to remain in striking distance of Edmonton and BC in the West. Drew Tate has seized the starting QB role from Henry Burris and is doing all he can to hang onto it. Tate completed 23 of 32 passes in his first career start last week while throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. With weapons like Nik Lewis, Ken-Yon Rambo and Romby Bryant, Tate could have some success against Montreal’s sketchy pass defense.
Calgary saw the return of Joffrey Reynolds last week – a return from Football oblivion. His presence, along with Jon Cornish gives the Stamps one of the best 1-2 punches out of the backfield in the league. If these two are touching the ball, Calgary is having success! [ad-4437448]
The Montreal Alouettes played perhaps their worst game of the season last week and still they lost by only one point. Anthony Calvillo passed for only 199 yards while throwing three interceptions – this after throwing only five picks all season! Still, the league leader in passing yards and touchdowns is bound to bounce back. Calvillo isn’t the most prolific passer in pro football for no reason!
Jamel Richardson continues to be virtually unstoppable and Brandon Whitaker has been playing at a very high level the last few weeks. Montreal is due for a bounce back week – Calvillo simply doesn’t struggle two weeks in a row!
Betting Prediction: Drew Tate won in his debut last week and looked pretty good. But that was against Saskatchewan – Montreal is a totally different challenge. The Alouettes continue to be the highest scoring team in the CFL with Calgary, surprisingly not far behind. It has been a long time since the Alouettes had something to play for this late in the season and I think that their focus will be spot on. With an inexperienced quarterback opposing them, expect a veteran and elite Montreal squad to easily cover on Sunday.
Pick: Montreal Alouettes -4 ½
When: 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 30, 2011
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Broadcast: FOX
Bengals vs. Seahawks Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Bengals -3
Moneyline: Bengals -155: Seahawks +135
Over/Under: 38 points
The Seattle Seahawks, fresh off one of the worst offensive performances of any team all season long welcome the upstart Cincinnati Bengals to town this weekend. Seattle was absolutely dreadful in a 6-3 loss to Cleveland last week but could get Tavaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch back in the fold. Cincinnati, coming off their bye will be playing without Cedric Benson who will sit the game out due to suspension.
Cincinnati has rightfully taken their place as a “team of the future”. They have won three straight games and have one of the most exciting young offensive corps. in the NFL. Offensively they are much farther along than most could have predicted and defensively, they are near the top of the league in nearly all defensive statistical categories. Cincinnati is no joke as they have been in the past and they find themselves in the thick of the AFC North division race. It is hard to believe but Cincinnati has a lot to play for this weekend.
Offensively, the Bengals will be without their workhorse running back Cedric Benson. It’s a good thing for Bernard Scott whose running style lends itself well to the Bengals game plan. He will surely be OK. But the onus will definitely be on Andy Dalton, a rookie that has flown under the radar because of some guy named Cam Newton. He has passed for 1311 yards, seven touchdown and five interceptions on the season and is coming off a game in which he threw for 164 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. AJ Green is the real deal at Wide Receiver and Jermaine Gresham is one of the brightest Tight End prospects in the game. Cincinnati appears set on offense and should be a great challenge for Seattle’s banged up 20th ranked pass defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Defense is another unexpected strength of the Bengals. They are 5th against the pass, 5th against the run and are they allow the 4th least points per game in the NFL. Seattle had a difficult time with Cleveland last week – Cincinnati is better!
The Seattle Seahawks better hope to get Tavaris Jackson (game-time decision) and Marshawn Lynch (questionable – back) back in the fold this week. This is a team that only gained 137 total yards last week in Cleveland. Seattle is a much better team at home than they are on the road – CenturyLink Field is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play.
Seattle’s offense has been largely dreadful this season but the game before their bye against the Giants gave Hawks fans some reason for optimism. Then injuries, the bye and their game in Cleveland happened and undid all of the positives.
The Hawks have some work to do on offense if they want to be competitive on Sunday and for the rest of the season. Seattle currently owns the worst scoring offense, the 28th ranked passing game and the 30th ranked rushing offense in the league. Injuries took all of the wind out of Seattle’s sails – health is critical this week against Cincinnati.
Seattle’s 11th ranked run defense will not have to face Cedric Benson this week but still faces a tough test in Bernard Scott. If the run defense is able to do its part, the battered 20th ranked pass defense may be presses into action which may not be the best thing for the Hawks – they lost another starting DB in last week’s game. Seattle’s defense has been OK overall and was responsible for 5 sacks, one interception, on forced fumble and two blocked field goals last week.
Betting Prediction: The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-13 SU in their last 19 games but are 4-2 SU in their last six. They are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road and are 2-4 SU in their last six trips to Seattle. Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorite. Seattle is 2-5 SU in their last seven games but is 4-2 SU in their last six games at home. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games versus Cincinnati but are an impressive 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Health is the biggest question mark for the Seahawks heading into Week 8. If Tavaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are unable to go, this game could get ugly. Even if the two starters return, Cincinnati will be a handful offensively and defensively. This aint the Bengals of a few years ago – they are young, talented and complete on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati is one game out of first in their division for a reason – they are good.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3
When: 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 30, 2011
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Browns vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: 49ers -9 1/2
Moneyline: Browns +385: 49ers -470
Over/Under: 38.5 points
The Cleveland Browns travel West in Week 8 to take on the surprising San Francisco 49ers. Cleveland is coming off an utterly underwhelming win over Seattle last week while the 49ers are coming off their bye looking to build on an impressive four game winning streak. Cleveland has taken a step in the right direction this season but the oddsmakers don’t seem to think that they will have any luck against a 49ers team that is finally emerging as a top flight organization.
Cleveland is certainly nothing special offensively – they own the 22nd ranked passing game, the 29th ranked running game and they are 27th in the NFL in scoring. Injuries have hit the team hard in recent weeks – Peyton Hillis is still highly questionable with a groin injury and wideout Mohamed Massaquoi sustained a concussion along with Ben Watson last week – all are questionable for this week. Montario Hardesty who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season will likely handle the rushing duties on the back of a 33 carry 95 yard effort last week.
Colt McCoy will have to be the best Brown on the field this Sunday – San Francisco owns the 2nd best run defense in the league and is giving up just 74.67 yards per game. It will be up to McCoy to exploit San Francisco’s 22nd ranked pass defense and will have to do it with Greg Little as the only healthy starter. McCoy isn’t exactly on fire – he passed for just 178 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception last week.
Cleveland’s defense has been great against the pass this season (2nd in the NFL) but has been vulnerable versus the run (19th in the league). With Frank Gore coming at them, it is difficult to imagine the Browns defense having any success at all. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The San Francisco 49ers has the second best record in the NFL after seven weeks – believe it! Coach John Harbaugh has totally changed this franchise around. The Niners have been able to do what all good teams do – run the ball and stop the run!
The 49ers bring the 31st ranked passing game into Sunday’s match. It is hard to imagine that Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Braylon Edwards are going to win the game for San Francisco. Their job is simply to limit mistakes – something that they have done exceptionally well this season. It will be up to San Francisco’s 6th ranked running game to get it done against Cleveland’s sketchy run defense. Frank Gore has been on a mission and after a slow start is 8th in the NFL in rushing with 541 yards.
Defensively, San Francisco has been superb this season – an unflattering 22nd against the pass but an incredible 2nd against the run. They will pose more than enough problems for the injury riddled Browns offense this week for the Niners to seize victory.
Betting Prediction: The Cleveland Browns are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games and are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road. They are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games on the road and are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games overall. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in their last five as an underdog. The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games at home. The 49ers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall but are a miserable 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after a bye.
San Francisco is simply in a different category than the Cleveland Browns. The 49ers running game should be able to dominate this game from beginning to end. Cleveland is banged up offensively and they are brutal on the road. With San Francisco playing at a high level in every aspect of the game, this has all the makings of the blowout of the weekend. 9 ½ points don’t scare me at all!
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 ½
UFC 137 takes place this weekend in Vegas and before it even starts there is a certain amount of disappointment. Georges St. Pierre was forced out of his title fight this weekend with a knee injury. Carlos Condit will reportedly get his shot at GSP somewhere down the line.
The UFC 137 Fight card is still littered with quality bouts – every one of which is broken down below with updated odds and picks.
UFC 137: St. Pierre vs. Condit
Date/Time: October 29, 2011, 9pm ET/6pm PT
Location: Manadalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Main Card
Welterweight (170lbs)
BJ Penn (16-7-2): -135
Nick Diaz (25-7-0): +105
Two very well rounded fighters meet in the main event of the evening when BJ Penn takes on Nick Diaz. Both men are terrific boxers and both own Black Belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Penn is a legend but is a bit of a fading star that will have all sorts of trouble with the height and reach of Diaz. I like the unorthodox striking and rugged nature of Diaz’s style to prevail in this one. Diaz will reclaim his place in line at his shot at GSP.
Pick: Nick Diaz +105
Heavyweight (265lbs)
Cheick Kongo (15-7-2): +110
Matt Mitrione (5-0-0): -140
In what is the most intriguing fight of the evening, rising star Matt Mitrione will look to use his superior athleticism against the huge and powerful Cheick Kongo. Kongo has all the tools for success but Mitrione has one enormous advantage in this fight – speed. I think Mitrione`s vastly improved footwork will be too much for Kongo. Quickness will open things up for Mitrione’s powerful hands and emerging kicks. It will be a battle with Mitrione extending his unbeaten streak.
Pick: Matt Mitrione -140
Heavyweight (265lbs)
Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic (27-9-2): +225
Roy Nelson (15-6-0): -300
This is perhaps the easiest fight of the night to call. Cro Cop has lost all of the luster that made him the most feared striker in MMA – he is slower, less powerful and can’t take a punch anymore. Nelson isn’t great but he is proficient enough in every aspect of MMA to get it done on Saturday.
Pick: Roy Nelson -300
Bantamweight (135lbs)
Scott Jorgensen (12-4-0): -450
Jeff Curran (33-13-1): +325
Jeff Curran returns to the Octagon after some time away to take on Scott Jorgensen, a fighter that has been close in the past but can`t seem to get over the hurdle. Curran brings experience decent boxing and a tremendous ability to fight off his back while Jorgensen has wrestling, insane conditioning, and tremendous ground control on his side. Expect Jorgensen to grind out a win in typical style and to put his name in the hat once again as a challenger to Dominick Cruz.
Pick: Scott Jorgensen -450
Featherweight (145lbs)
Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2): -350
George Roop (11-6-1): +250
Hioki is extremely well respected – a former Shooto and Sengoku champion. He makes his UFC debut against George Roop who is 2-3 in his last five fights. We have seen it before, over and over – Japanese fighters have a very difficult time in their UFC debuts – I think the same happens again. Roop will be wary of Hioki’s superb submission game (14 subs) and will use his height to keep this fight standing. Roop is exciting and unpredictable – I like the upset in this one! [ad-3573245]
Pick: George Roop +250
Preliminary Card
Lightweight (155lbs)
Bart Palaszewski (34-14-0): +250
Tyson Griffin (15-5-0): -350
Bart Palaszewski makes his UFC debut on Saturday and brings a good all around game with him. However, Palaszewski has shown in the past that he has trouble with high level grapplers. Enter Tyson Griffin who will not only outclass Palaszewski when the fight hit the mat but also in the standup as well. Griffin gets it done!
Pick: Tyson Griffin -350
Lightweight (155lbs)
Dennis Siver (19-7-0): +200
Donald Cerrone (15-3-0): -260
Dennis Siver was supposed to face Sam Stout but now has the tough task of facing the very well rounded Donald Cerrone. Siver is a tremendous striker that has won four straight fights but Cerrone will have a distinct size and reach advantage in this one. Once this fight goes to the ground (and it will), Cerrone will dominate.
Pick: Donald Cerrone -260
Light Heavyweight (205lbs)
Eliot Marshall (9-2-0): +375
Brandon Vera (11-6-0): -550
The Ultimate Fighter alum Elliot Marshall will be fighting for his UFC career on Saturday when he takes on a fighter that once was a prodigy but hasn’t quite lived up to expectation – Brandon Vera. After 3 straight losses (1 was overturned with the positive drug test of Thiago Silva), Brandon Vera is due. He should get it done against the underwhelming Marshall.
Pick: Brandon Vera -550
Middleweight (185lbs)
Clifford Starks (7-0-0): -110
Dustin Jacoby (12-4-0): -120
Dustin Jacoby is riding a six fight win streak but in far lesser organizations – Clifford Starks is undefeated and has fought in decent organizations like Rage in the Cage and Shark Fights. . Look for the youth, aggression and energy and 6 inch height advantage of Jacoby to show up in this fight and to win the battle of the debuts.
Pick: Dustin Jacoby -120
Lightweight (155lbs)
Danny Downes (7-2-0): +180
Ramsey Nijem (4-2-0): -230
Ramsey Nijem, a TUF 13 contestant hits the Octagon with decent wrestling and boxing experience but with limited MMA experience. Danny Downes doesn`t have much more experience in the Octagon but he does have some rounds under his belt against some top tier MMA talent – Chris Horodecki and Jeremy Stephens). Downes is simply the better fighter and brings more experience – that`s good enough for me!
Pick: Danny Downes +180
Middleweight (185lbs)
Francis Carmont (16-7-0): -120
Chris Camozzi (15-4-0):-110
Chris Camozzi is simply one of the more overrated fighters in the UFC – he was cut and brought back for some reason. On Saturday he takes on French fighter and GSP training partner Francis Carmont. Carmont destroyed a very tough Jason Day in his last fight – I expect the same will ring true with Camozzi.
Pick: Francis Carmont -120
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets and Tampa Bay are all on byes this week. So who are some good options to take the place of the Studs on those teams? Who will fill in admirably for the rash of injured players from the last week or two?
The half way point of the NFL season is fast approaching. It is a good time to look at your rosters to figure out who you can trust down the stretch and into the playoffs of your Fantasy leagues. The Week 8 Hot and Not list offers some insight into some players that should be able of carry you and some that may unfortunately sink you.
Week 7 is in the books and with Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets and Tampa Bay on byes in Week 8, it is time to scour the Waiver Wire for replacements for the Studs from those teams. Injuries were a huge part of Week 7 action as well.
