NCAAF Week Six Free Picks Analysis – Navy at Air Force
The Navy Midshipmen (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U), beat 16th-ranked Wake Forest 24-17 on Saturday to record their first victory over a nationally ranked opponent in 23 years.
First-year head coach Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo called the victory, “An unbelievable win for our program.”
The Midshipmen got an excellent performance from fullback Eric Kettani as he ran for a career-high for the second consecutive week, toasting Wake for 175 yards on just 19 carries.
While starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was lost to a second half injury, the Navy defense had its best day of the young season, forcing six turnovers, including intercepting Wake QB Riley Skinner four times.
Kaheaku-Enhada aggravated his problematic left hamstring in the second quarter and has been listed as probable to play at Air Force; but Navy pulled off the upset anyway.
Navy was a heavy underdog going into each of their last two games at Wake Forest and Rutgers, but has managed to pull out each contest with solid rushing on offense and few turnovers.
Navy built a 17-0 halftime lead and managed to hold on after Wake began a furious comeback that was aided by Navy’s failure to hold on to the second half kick-off.
BetUS college football bettors should know that Navy has dominated the Air Force Falcons, (3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U), recently, winning five straight contests and covering the spread in each.
However, the Falcons are now one of the better defensive teams in the nation and are ranked right around the top 50 in total yards allowed, (330.0, 49th), passing yards, (61st and rushing yards allowed, (129.0, 56th).
Air Force is ranked 17th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 17.0 points per contest and enter this contest coming off a 30-23 loss to Utah in Week 4, but had a week off to prepare for this contest with a bye in Week 5.
The Falcons are also ranked sixth in rushing, averaging 281.8 rushing yards per game and ranked just outside the top 50 in scoring, averaging 29.5 points per contest, (54th). Unfortunately, the Falcons’ passing attack has been almost non-existent, averaging just 57 yards per game.
“We’ve got to find somebody that can get downfield. For us, when you look at us right now, we’ve got to find some guys that can make some big gainers and some home runs. We’ve got to have that,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said.
Falcons’ senior defensive end Jake Paulson leads the nation with 7.0 sacks and has forced two fumbles this season, returning one for a 25-yard touchdown against Utah in their season opener.
Here is a look at some key Head-to-Head Trends
Navy is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Air Force
Air Force is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Navy
Air Force is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
Here are some key team trends.
Navy is 5-5 in their last 10 October games
Navy is 7-3 in their last ten turf contests
Air Force is 4-6 in their last 10 October games
The Falcons are 8-2 in their last 10 turf game
Navy is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Navy is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Air Force is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Air Force is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Analysis: While Navy is coming off of solid back-to-back wins over two quality opponents, the Air Force Falcons have been lying in wait for two weeks and are looking at this game as their most important one of the season after losing to the Midshipmen five straight times.
I really like the powerful Air Force defense to lead the Falcons to victory as the team feeds off of Navy’s uncertainty at quarterback and the offense puts on one of its best performances of the season so far. Let’s not forget BetUS college football bettors, the Midshipmen lost their two previous games against Duke and Ball State emphatically.
NCAAF Free Picks: Air Force 27 Navy 20
Navy +6 -110
Air Force -6 -110
