The Knicks have hit a road bump. The rest of the Eastern Conference? Meh.
So it’s hardly a concern for Miami when the Heat don’t draw rave reviews, especially on the road. Miami is just 7-6 away from South Florida this season, and when the resume includes losses at Detroit and Washington, it’s a pretty good sign that the team has collective attention deficit disorder on occasion. .
Crimson Tide vs. Fighting Irish College Football Spread/Handicapping
Well it is finally here. Two big brand names but still debate over whether these are the two most deserving schools (at least for me). Probably a defensive battle but with so much time to prepare who knows
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) vs. #1 Notre Dame (12-0)
Monday January 7
Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL
8:30
Moneyline: Alabama -345, Notre Dame +315 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread: Alabama -9.5
O/U: 40.5
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Alabama is probably the most talented team in the nation. They always do well in recruiting rankings and now that mock drafts are the rage they are looking good there too.
The amazing thing is that they almost didn’t make it here. Johnny Heisman knocked them down earlier in the season and the Bulldogs nearly had their number in the SEC Championship.
Both of those teams have a nice mix of offensive talent to challenge their defense…The defense gets a lot of praise but the offense is very good too – they averaged 38ppg.
Its not flashy but the best offensive line in football paved the way for two 1000 yard rushers, Eddie Lacy and freshman T.J. Yeldon both averaged 6.5 yards per carry.
That line also gave QB A.J. McCarron time to complete nearly 70% of his passes. He makes few mistakes too (just 3 interceptions on the season)…Despite the one loss the Crimson Tide are heavy favourites at -9.5.
Alabama has been a poor bet this season at just 6-7 ATS including 1-4 ATS down the stretch.
This could be a tight defensive struggle but it could also be another examples of Bama’s recent dominance.
The last and only undefeated team in the nation is Notre Dame. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Technically you can’t argue with their selection to the Championship game but for me they don’t pass the sight test for me. Their regular season had some nice wins but also some head scratchers, I think only one of their conquests, Stanford, lived up to expectations this season…
Statistically the defense has been a monster with linebacker Manti Te’o gaining lots of attention and finishing second in the Heisman race.
Its the offense led by QB Everett Golson that has everyone questioning this team.
They run the ball alright and have QB Tommy Rees as closer but it is hardly a good offensive team that is likely to struggle against Alabama…In addition to having strong defenses another trait the Irish have in common is a poor ATS record, just 7-6. That has been primarily because of their poor offensive showings.
It affected them as favourites with big numbers but I think it will do the same in this one too.
They might not be able to keep this one close.
Spread Pick: Alabama -9.5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction:
Good thing that the Oklahoma City Thunder make only one trip to D.C. this season. Their presence in the downtown section of the nation’s capital only serves to remind the few remaining basketball fans there of the difference between two franchises that were once pretty much on par.
Quality NBA bigs are rare commodities, but rumors persist that three of them will be on the move in the near future.
The Irish are not getting much respect this season. They have just one loss and there are 8 teams ahead of them in the rankings who have more including their opponent Cincinnati.
The Cowboys have impressed early this year. They absolutely hammered N.C. State back when many thought they were championship material and they have just two losses on the season.
#21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs Kansas State Wildcats (11-2)
Saturday January 5
Red Bramlage Coliseum – Manhattan, KS
1:30PM
Moneyline: No ML currently listed
Spread: Kansas State -2.5
O/U: No O/U currently listed at Bovada
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They lost their last game to a very good Gonzaga team by just a point and I think they can surprise in the Big 12 if they play consistently, something that has been a problem for this squad in the past.
To say the Cowboys are perimeter oriented is an understatement. Their top 5 scorers are listed as guards and they are fortunate to have two amazing talents in LeBryan Nash and Marcus Smart. Nash has an NBA ready body and the game to match while Smart might be the best freshman in the country. He has a versatile game: third in scoring, second in rebounding and first in assists. He has been the biggest difference maker from last year to this.
Oklahoma State is 7-3-1 ATS this season and is a nice value play this weekend as a small dog. Winning on the road in a major conference like the Big 12 is never easy but I think they can pull of the upset against a scrappy Kansas State that doesn’t have the kind of top level talent the Cowboys do.
Kansas State also has just two losses and one really impressive victory over Florida – their two losses are to top teams Michigan and Gonzaga too by the way. New coach Bruce Weber inherited a nice team that is certainly built to win now even if their talent doesn’t blow you away. In the early going they have been a fantastic defensive team – 15h in the nation giving up just 56ppg. These guys play with great intensity. [ad-6571516]
The Wildcats have a little bit of everything: size, shooting, and Rodney McGruder. McGruder is a swiss army knife providing scoring, rebounding and excellent perimeter defense. The size comes from Jordan Enriquez who is 6’11 and defends the rim while the shooting is from Shane Southwell who is hitting 45% of his three point shots. They have scrapiness too in the form of guard Will Spradling.
K State is perfect at home (7-0) but is an awful 3-6 ATS overall this season. One factor I really don’t like about this team is that they only hit on 65% of their free throws. Even if they are playing with the lead late their sometimes struggles on offense are compounded by failing in this elementary part of the game.
Spread Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5
O/U Pick
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 69 – Kansas State 65
Headline: 2012 Wild Card Rematch – Texans Host Cincinnati in Round 1
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet on Wild Card Saturday when the Cincinnati Bengals winners of seven of their past eight games try to avenge a loss in last year’s AFC Wild Card game against the Houston Texans who have lost three of their last four games.
The Cincinnati Bengals put it all together down the stretch beating the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in their last two games to qualify for the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) vs. Houston Texans (12-4)
Date/Time: Saturday, January 5, 4:30 PM ET
Venue: Reliant Stadium
Broadcast: NBC
Bengals vs. Texans Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Texans -4 1/2 (-110)
Moneyline: Bengals +185: Texans -215
Over/Under: 43 points
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Defense has been the name of the game for Cincinnati but having Andy Dalton and AJ Green in the fold certainly doesn`t hurt either.
The Bengals enter Saturday`s tilt with the league`s 17th ranked passing game and the 18th best rushing game. But there is no denying the weapons in this team. Andy Dalton has looked poised, AJ Green has emerged as one of the two or three best receivers in the NFL and Benjarvus Green-Ellis finally stepped up down the stretch and became a legitimate threat each and every time he touched the ball.
While the offense has been doing its job, the Bengals defense has proven to be the difference for this team. They finished the season 7th in the NFL against the pass and 12th versus the run. Cincinnati has developed a stellar pass rush which figures to give Matt Schaub and the Houston O-line fits on Saturday.
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As for the Houston Texans, it is simple – they haven`t played well down the stretch losing three of four all by double digits. Matt Schaub has struggled mightily and the offensive line has failed to provide the necessary protection for this team to succeed. Heading into the playoffs, there isn`t a whole lot of confidence coming out of Houston and rightfully so.
The Texans finished the regular season with the 11th best passing offense and the league`s 8th ranked rushing game. But the success came early – they have had issues all over the field the last couple of months. You have to score points to win and at present the Texans are having a hard time getting in the end zone. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It is not only Houston`s offense that has struggled lately – the defense that had been top 3 in almost every statistical category for the first two third of the season can`t get off the field. This unit ended up with the 16th versus the pass and they were 7th against the run – not too bad until you look at the numbers through the last third of the season. Houston still has playmakers on defense for sure (JJ Watt) but they have failed to maintain the chemistry that made the one of the best early in the season.
Betting Prediction:
A few trends to consider:
• Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games
• Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games
• Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
• Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
• Houston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The Bengals have been playing very well at home and away down the stretch – they are 6-1 in their last seven on the road. On the flip side, Houston has been bad everywhere lately. While I like Wade Philips to devise a defensive scheme against Cincinnati, I have little faith in the Texans offense in this one, especially against a furious, ball-hawking defense. In a low scoring game I like the Bengals to avenge their loss in this game last year and send the slumping Texans packing.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2
This year’s GoDaddy.com Bowl features a talented Sun Belt Conference team locking horns with a MAC outfit coming off a memorable campaign.
I don’t know how things got weird and a game of this calibre got pushed to this late in the bowl calendar. I do know that there is nothing to like about it. SEC vs BIg East is not a good matchup in this one.
Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) vs Ole Miss Rebels (6-6)
Saturday January 5
Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
1:00PM
Moneyline: Ole Miss -160, Pittsburgh +140 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
O/U: 52
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The Panthers needed to win their final two games to become bowl eligible and they did. In fact they have gone the whole season on two game streaks, losing then winning, creating their current symetrical 6-6 record.
Mostly they are getting it done on the defensive side of the ball as the Panthers are inconsistent on offense at best…
At running back they have a difference maker in Ray Graham. The pint sized senior finally broke through with a 1000 yard season – but with his worst average per carry. He is tougher than he looks and plays well when the team wins.
QB Tino Sunseri has taken a lot of heat over the years but he put up some nice numbers as a senior too including a TD/INT ratio of 19/2…Pitts was 7-4 ATS this season including 5-1 the last two months of the season.
I think the only way you can like this team is as the underdog because you just can’t rely on them too much. That extra half point provides some value though.
Ole Miss also got their bowl qualifying win in the last week of the season, beating in-state rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. They play in the toughest division in college football and held their own this year, losses to Vanderbilt, LSU and Texas A&M were all by 6 points or less. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
This isn’t a great team but with any other schedule they are probably 8-4…
Nothing in particular stands out about Ole Miss talent wise. QB Bo Wallace is alright but throws it too many times to the wrong guys. Former starting QB Randall Mackey gets used running the ball, at receiver and sometimes even throwing the ball too.
It is that kind of versatility that might come in handy with a lot of extra time to prepare…
Though just 6-6 Ole Miss has been a very profitable 9-3 ATS. This is a battle tested team that even though it is not super talented seems to play above its head.
Coach Hugh Freeze is doing a better job than you realize in his first year and it should end with a bowl victory.
Spread Pick: Ole Miss -3.5
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 24 – Pittsburgh 17
That 2012 Beltway (Nationals-Orioles) World Series never got off the drawing board when the Orioles and Nationals flamed out early in the playoffs.
The last game of Wild Card weekend will probably be the most compelling. A couple of athletic rookie QBs looking to lead their teams to a championship. I like it.
There’s still plenty of glitter, but tonight’s Lakers-Clippers strut could have been so much more had these two teams not hit a few icy patches in late December and early January.
Los Angeles Lakers (15-16) at Los Angeles Clippers (25-8)
Friday, Jan. 4
Staples Center, Los Angeles
10:30 p.m. EST
Spread – Clippers -4.5
O/U – 205.5 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
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Had they not run low on gas, the Clippers could be headed into tonight with 19 straight victories and perhaps taking aim at the Lakers’ 1972 NBA record of 33 victories in a row.
Road losses at Denver and Golden State put a small dent in the NBA’s new Lamborghini, however.
The Lakers have had a nice run of their own interrupted. That win over the Knicks on Christmas Day was the 5th straight for Kobe and his cast, but then they couldn’t stay airborne, losing at Denver (those pesky Nuggets!) and later crashing and burning at home against the mediocre 76ers.
Now both teams will be trying to piece things together as they meet for the second time this season. The Clippers won by 10 way back on Nov. 2 in a game that for the first time indicated that there might be a changing of the guard at Staples Center this season. Chris Paul went off for 18 and 15 in that one, and Jamal Crawford had 21 off the bench for the Clips.
Bryant threw in an angry 40, but the Lakers got next to nothing from its bench, fell behind early and never recovered.
Hard to imagine on a team that has Bryant, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash, but the Lakers would not be in the playoff mix if they were to start today.[ad-6571516]
Nobody thinks they’ll be golfing in mid-April, but there are plenty of warning signs, not the least of which is Bryant’s lament that the team is losing because it’s old. It’s hard to fix old.
Maybe Bryant is on to something. Nash is 37, Bryant himself 34 and Pau Gasol is 32. Dwight Howard is only 27 but has been having trouble getting comfortable, and may be holding back to stay healthy as he heads into free agency and a big payday this June.
To get fresh legs into the game, Laker coach Mike D’Antoni is bringing Metta World Peace off the bench and starting 21-year-old Darius Morris at the 2, Bryant moving to the 3.
As for the Clippers, the concern now is paying attention to details on a nightly basis and avoiding mental lapses. There’s no crime in losing on the road to an up-and-coming hungry team like the Warriors, but the new Showtimers need to be ready to play from the opening gun – they fell behind GS in the first period and never recovered.
For fans in the East, this is one of the few NBA games worth staying up past midnight. Neither team will be mailing this one in, and even Howard should be somewhat focused.
Looking for a game that stays close deep into the fourth period, with a Laker cover.
People want to make a big deal about the Baltimore historical angle for this one but who cares. What is more interesting is whether Ray Lewis is going to let a rookie QB end his career. How much more Luck is left in that horseshoe?
A rematch of the season finale between these two divisional rivals. Now both teams are in win or go home mode, will the Packers be able to corral Adrian Peterson and grab the victory?
There is no doubt Arizona has been the most impressive PAC 12 team thus far but Colorado might be second. They have two losses, one to Kansas (ugly but no shame and a better than you think Wyoming team).
The Wolverines are done touring the MAC and the directional in-state schools. It is time to get to the business of proving they are worth their lofty ranking against the best conference in America.
