2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning
Behold, the magic touch of Steve Yzerman! He took over a non-playoff Tampa Bay Lightning team last summer and was expected to gradually improve it with his unique hockey knowledge. But there was nothing gradual about what Tampa Bay did last season.
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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Stanley Cup odds: +1400
The Bolts crusaded all the way to the Eastern Conference final and pushed the eventual Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins to a seventh game.
In theory, Tampa’s goal this season would therefore be Stanley Cup or bust. But I wonder if Tampa might wind up slightly disappointed in 2011-12.
One aspect of Tampa’s team that should remain powerful as ever: its top-six forwards. They flourished under head coach Guy Boucher’s system. You may have remembered Boucher before Tampa as Le Chiffre from the James Bond film Casino Royale or as the man who made the Montreal Canadiens’ power play the best in hockey during the late 2000s.
He was the perfect fit for dynamic offensive players like Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lecavalier. Boucher got the most out of rising star Teddy Purcell, too. This season, scoring again won’t be a problem for Tampa.
The Lightning’s defense should more or less stay the same in 2011-12. They have outstanding size with a beastly top four of Victor Hedman, Eric Brewer, Mattias Ohlund and Pavel Kubina. Hedman should also keep improving. As we learned over the years with high draft picks like Chris Pronger and Ed Jovanovski, big blueliners often take a while to mature.
But there are some red flags with Tampa’s “D” as well. With the size comes a serious lack of foot speed, which could be problematic against great-skating teams in their division like Washington, Carolina and Winnipeg. Kubina and Ohlund are also well past their prime and on the decline. [ad-4437448]
Overall, though, I expect Tampa’s frontline scoring and defense to mirror last year’s productivity. So why am I worried?
I’m worried because the two X-factors that vaulted Tampa into the conference final last season may not be sustainable. The first is checking-line scoring. For some reason, unsung heroes like Steve Downie, Dominic Moore and Sean Bergenheim filled the net in the playoffs. While they’ll remain fantastic checkers, they won’t score like that again. Bergenheim has changed teams, too.
Secondly, the Lightning’s goaltending may implode this season. Dwayne Roloson was a total revelation upon joining the team last season but he can’t play at an elite level for much longer in his 40s. We saw signs of it in the conference final last season when he started to wilt and posted a few stinker games. If Roloson crumbles, backup option Mathieu Garon isn’t a carry-the-team type.
The Lightning still look like a clear playoff team to me in 2011-12 but I think their fans should temper their expectations. This team played over its head last season; everything went right. All their best players also stayed healthy. Chances are, Tampa will face more adversity this season, especially since its main division rival, Washington, looks improved.
Prediction: 2nd, Southeast Division
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