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Detroit vs Green Bay Betting

Headline: Lions Relegated to Spoiler Role in NFC North – Lions and Packers at Lambeau Week 14

Many of us had December 9 circled on our calendars as an NFC North matchup that could determine the state of the division. Instead, we will see a matchup a chronically underachieving Detroit squad against a Green Bay team that has shaken the early season doldrums and has looked every bit the Super Bowl challenger that we envisioned before the season started. Sunday’s game has major implications – unfortunately for Detroit, none of the implications involve them!

Detroit Lions (4-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-4)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 9, 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Lambeau Field
Broadcast: NBC
Lions vs. Packers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Packers -6 1/2 (-110)
Moneyline: OFF
Over/Under: 52 points

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Before the season started nobody would have predicted that the Detroit Lions would be battling for yet another Top 10 pick in the 2013 draft but that is just where we are 12 games into the season. The good news for Detroit is that Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are on the verge of rewriting the record books again. The bad news is that no matter what they do their running game and defense will more than likely fail their end of the bargain.

Detroit leads the NFL in passing through 13 weeks with an average of 312.50 yards per game and they are 21st in rushing. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 3429 yards and 14 touchdowns. Calvin Johnson is living up to his Megatron name with 1257 yards so far this season; however, he has only tallied four touchdowns.

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Johnson has 790 yards receiving in the last five games and he did have five catches for 143 yards in the first meeting between the two teams. The Lions can score points as well – they are 11th in the NFL with an average of 25.00 points per game.

The Lions will absolutely need more from their running game this week – Adrian Peterson showed last week that the Packers can be run on. Do I trust Mikel Leshoure? Nope!

Detroit’s defense has been a problem all season long. Despite some serious talent on the O-line, this team is prone to big plays and their games often result in shootouts because of it. The Lions are 18th against the pass and 19th versus the run. They give up 26.25 points per game – good for an ugly 25th in the NFL. This unit has given up an average of 31.75 points per game during the Lions four game losing streak as well.

The Green Bay Packers have emerged from their 2-3 start but have gone 6-1 since. Have they looked unstoppable in their wins? Not exactly. Are they getting it done in a host of different ways? Absolutely.

Injuries have been a big part of the 2012 season thus far for Green Bay and by the looks of it, there will be some starters on both sides of the ball absent again this week.  [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Green Bay is surprisingly 11th in the NFL in passing thanks to fill-ins Randall Cobb and James Jones. Greg Jennings is back healthy but now Jordy Nelson is in danger of missing a week or two. Fear not Packers fans – Aaron Rodgers can make anyone look like an All-Pro. The question surrounding this offense is the O-line that has been shaky to say the least this year. Keeping Rodgers healthy and upright is paramount for this team – the line will be tested for sure against Detroit’s pass rush.

The Green Bay defense has also been playing without some quality starters – Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson are in danger of missing this week as well. Still, the Packers defense is 17th against the pass, 15th versus the run and they are 13 in points against – 21.58 per game.

Betting Prediction:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 13 of Detroit’s last 16 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games when playing Green Bay
• Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
• Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
• Green Bay is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Detroit
• Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Late game meltdowns have become a pattern for the Detroit Lions as of late – I see the same thing happening here. The Lions defense has been BAD the last month and Aaron Rodgers has been very good. Rodgers also has a good history against Detroit – in his last two games Rogers has a 70% completion percentage and seven touchdowns versus Detroit. The Lions will put up a fight but when it comes down to the end, Green Bay, on home field, in December against a struggling team won’t be denied.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -6 1/2