Bodog Super Bowl XLIV Handicapping Analysis

Super Bowl Betting Boot Camp

We’ve been waiting awhile for this one, but the biggest event on the online sports betting calendar is just around the corner. Super Bowl XLIV kicks off from Miami’s Dolphin Stadium – recently rebranded as Sun Life Stadium – on February 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the latest in the year the Super Bowl has ever been held.

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Good thing for handicappers; we’ll have that much more time to prepare, even if we don’t know the participants yet.

We’ll take any advantage we can get. The NFL is already the most difficult of the major betting sports to handicap; the public is both gigantic and better informed, and there are limited opportunities to lay down some coin during a 16-game season. Now take that challenging marketplace and focus it directly on Super Bowl Sunday. It ain’t easy, folks. But neither is it rocket science. All you need to get the jump on the public is some good betting fundamentals.

First and foremost, there’s the golden rule of NFL betting: Get in early. Your best opportunity to shop for value is as soon as the odds go up. The more action that comes in on a game, the tighter the lines will get in response to market forces. The archetypal square bettor might spend some time going over the office pool and deciding which Super Bowl props to take, but he still won’t place his bet until after work is over on Friday. There’s invariably a rush of action over the weekend before the game, so the lines are relatively soft until then. As they say, there’s never been a better time to buy.

This goes double now that there are two weeks between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl. But that extra week also opens up the possibility that off-the-field events will come into play. Any number of things could happen between the time you place your bet and the start of the Big Game. Exhibit A: Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Oakland Raiders (-3.5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oakland’s starting center, Barret Robbins, went missing the week before the game and was eventually hospitalized. Tampa Bay took advantage and cruised to a 48-21 victory with three interception returns for touchdowns.

Which leads us to our second commandment: Thou shalt read the local papers. A case as extreme as Robbins’ (he suffers from bipolar disorder and has been in and out of jail) is rare, but these things do happen. The local papers – most of which are accessible online for free – are also your best source for injury updates. This is the end of an extremely punishing season; players are worn down and highly susceptible to injury while running the playoff gauntlet. Despite what they tell you on TV, the name on the back of the uniform matters more than the name on the front when it comes to results. One missing player can spell the difference between winning and losing. That player could be a star quarterback, or an anonymous (yet very important) offensive lineman like Robbins.

Step No. 3 in our basic betting strategy is to gather up as many stats as we can on the Super Bowl. Trends must never be taken as gospel, but they do give us a general picture of the Big Game. They’re also a very necessary part of your Super Bowl prop plans. Here are a dozen must-haves for your collection:

– There has been a touchdown scored in every single Super Bowl game.
– No Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime.
– No team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.
– No Super Bowl has been scoreless at halftime.
– There has never been a punt return for a touchdown at the Super Bowl.
– Every winning team has scored at least one touchdown.
– There has never been a play from scrimmage of 90 yards or longer.
– The team leading after the first quarter is 22-10 straight up.
– The team leading at the half is 33-8.
– The team leading after three quarters is 36-6.
– The team scoring first is 28-15.
– The team with the higher seed is 14-12.

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