NCAAF: THREE PLAYS FOR SATURDAY
Three Saturday afternoon college football games are highlighted by the ‘World’s Largest Cocktail Party’ between Georgia and Florida.
Pittsburgh (+5) at Notre Dame 2:30 pm ET
Among the many rivalries that Notre Dame stakes claim to, the one against Pittsburgh historically has taken a back seat.
That ends this week in this key non-conference duel. Notre Dame is a 5-point favorite and backed by 84% of the Sportsbook.com betting crowd.
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-5 ATS), after a fruitless effort in their opening game loss to Bowling Green, had won six straight before falling to Rutgers at home 54-34. What makes this Pitt team different from recent Dave Wannstedt coached teams is they are more consistent, backed with a solid defense (until last game).
Quarterback Bill Stull had been playing well but suffered a concussion last week and is listed as doubtful, meaning Pittsburgh will lean more on the run and the talents of LeSean McCoy. The Panthers defense is Top 25 quality, being mean and physical, especially the front four. Pitt is 10-8 away ATS with coach ‘Wanny’ at the helm.
Enough folks still complain Notre Dame (5-2 straight-up and ATS) is no good, but they are much better than last year. Much of that progress can be traced to sophomore quarterback Jimmy Clausen, who is healthier, smarter and better protected than he was last season.
Pittsburgh was being talked about as Big East champions just eight days ago and though this contest doesn’t derail those chances, two straight losses would create negative thoughts. Notre Dame is also trying to become relevant again and reenter the Top 25 and is 2-6 ATS following a win of more than 20 points.
The Fighting Irish are 8-11 ATS as home favorites at Notre Dame Stadium under Weis. They have had their way with Pittsburgh, 9-2 straight up and ATS since 1991. These teams last met in 2005 and the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to South Bend. Pittsburgh is a pitiful 2-17 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points.
CFB Free Prediction: – Pittsburgh covers
Georgia (+6.5) vs. Florida 3:30 pm ET
It’s from the frying pan into the oven for Georgia (7-1, 3-2-2 ATS), having beaten LSU last week and having to get ready for a swamp full of angry Gators in Jacksonville.
The ‘World’s Largest Cocktail Party’ has the added drama of following up last year’s event when Georgia won 42-30 as a touchdown underdog.
Off last week’s Kentucky creaming, 63-5, if Florida wins this game, the SEC East is theirs with only Vanderbilt and South Carolina remaining in league play. Tim Tebow has not been asked to do as much and his overall skills have improved. The Florida defense has been stellar in stopping the opposition and forcing 16 turnovers to boot. The Gators are 1-7 ATS off two or more home games.
The stat sheet has often shown Georgia is significantly better than their opponents. This has not translated to the scoreboard in the same manner as offensive breakdowns in the red zone have kept the Bulldogs from realizing full potential.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford interceptions, penalties and poor third-down conversion rates have all contributed to less satisfying results until last week.
Florida (6-1, 5-2 ATS) hasn’t seen anyone close to Stafford’s ability but Tebow already has the hardware to prove his skills and will do whatever it takes not to lose to Georgia two times in a row. Whatever team that can establish both the run and pass will be the winner. Florida is 10-3 ATS taking on teams with winning records.
Florida has owned this SEC showdown, with a 15-3 record and 11-6-1 ATS mark. Watch out for the underdog, who is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven years. For those that already know who the winner is, back them, since the straight up victor is 22-3-1 ATS.
CFB Free Prediction: – Georgia covers
Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech 3:30 pm ET
Florida State (6-1, 3-2 ATS) has gotten something it has not in years, good quarterback play from sophomore Christian Ponder. His poise has grown each week and it has shown in making snap decisions.
The Florida State defense is returning to past glory and is ranked third in the country in total yards allowed at 247.3 per game. The front seven in particular has been able to create havoc, which could be particularly important facing the Georgia Tech option offense.
While everyone was waiting for 6-2 Georgia Tech (5-1 ATS) to adjust to Coach Paul Johnson’s system, the Yellow Jackets were busy developing into a well-rounded football team.
Signal caller Josh Nesbitt has quickly adjusted to Johnson’s offense. The offensive line is physical and mobile enough to help this Top 10 rushing offense (236.6 YPG) and the defensive line and secondary have played better than expected.
Florida State is finally moving in the right direction program-wise and everything had gone pretty smoothly for Coach Johnson’s team until last week, we need to see how they respond. The Yellow Jackets are 14-6 ATS of a loss and the Seminoles are 5-1 ATS after gaining less than 275 yards of offense.
Florida State is 12-7-1 all-time against Georgia Tech, with 12 being the most important number, as this represents how many games the Noles have won in a row over the Jackets. Bobby Bowden’s bunch is 7-3-1 ATS against Tech. This will be a big test for the Seminoles who are 1-4 ATS lately on the road in November.
CFB Free Prediction: – Georgia Tech covers
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