NCAAF: WEST VIRGINIA AT COLORADO
ESPN continues its nightly coverage of college football on Thursday when it brings you the West Virginia Mountaineers (-3) at the Colorado Buffaloes.
Kickoff is at 8:30 pm ET. The Mountaineers are 1-1 and the Buffaloes are 2-0, but WVU’s lofty preseason ranking has 78% of the Sportsbook.com betting pool backing the visitors.
West Virginia has had 12 days to stew about its confounding effort against East Carolina in a 24-3 loss in Greenville. It wasn’t like the Mountaineers had not lost before, suffering five losses in the previous three seasons. It was more a matter of how they lost that was so shocking.
After East Carolina scored to go ahead 24-3, it was readily apparent this contest was over. What is crystal clear is that West Virginia is a team in transition. The Rich Rodriquez recruited players are used to physical, knock the opponent in the mouth football.
Now it is more finesse-oriented and players are grasping for a new identity, while holding onto the past. West Virginia travels to the Rocky Mountains looking to improve on a 15-6-1 ATS road favorite record.
Coach Bill Stewart is trying to change the offense and by all appearances, does not have the right people in place to do so. Much like Rodriguez is trying to change Michigan into his preferred style, Pat White is not going to be confused for an NFL quarterback.
After he threw for over 200 yards against Villanova, TV talking heads were praising the “new” West Virginia offense, being a more versatile attack. After the Mountaineers failed to score an offensive touchdown for the first time in seven years, these same people talked about how physical the East Carolina defense was, sidestepping the real issue.
Maybe passing for only 72 yards will work to West Virginia’s advantage, being 26-11 ATS after throwing for 125 or less yards in their previous contest.
Colorado avoided serious embarrassment back on September 6th, scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter (the last was and interception for a touchdown) for a come from behind win against Eastern Washington, 31-24.
The Buffalos narrow escape was befuddling for a team that is 10-17 (11-14 ATS) in a touch over two seasons and can hardly be considered a Big 12 power or a team on the rise. What was obvious in the close call over Eastern Washington was if the Colorado defense doesn’t generate a pass rush, they are vulnerable to opposing offenses.
Quarterback Cody Hawkins will need to be more consistent in the passing game and the offensive line needs to open bigger holes for backs Darrell Scott and Rodney James to run through. Colorado needs a balanced attack and is 30-13 ATS when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards. The Buff’s offensive line is every bit as physical as East Carolina and West Virginia had only one sack and did not force a turnover.
West Virginia would be wise to play power football with the Buffalos, since Colorado is 14-26 (17-23 ATS) in their last 40 non-conference regular season games. Besides doing a better job of running the ball, the ‘Teers should get the ball to Noel Devine and Jock Sanders in open space to let them use their sprinter speed and shifty moves to avoid the charging Buffalos.
Colorado is just 3-6 ATS as a home underdog the last four years and 2-6 straight up and ATS off a bye week. They are also 0-8 ATS versus non-conference BCS schools.
West Virginia covers
Over the Total of 57 points
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