Cappers Picks Blog - Free Sports Predictions

Michigan vs. Iowa

Brady Hoke has certainly had a successful start to his time at Michigan. The Wolverines are 7-1 so far this year, and the defense has been light-years better than last season. Michigan is only 1-1 on the road this year, and they’ll get a tough road test this week at Iowa.

Kinnick Stadium
Saturday November 5, 12:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Michigan (-175) Iowa (+155)
College Football Spread: Michigan -4 (-110) Iowa +4 (-110)
Over/Under: 57

The Hawkeyes are coming off a very disappointing loss at Minnesota. Expect Kirk Ferentz to push the team really hard in practice this week. How will the Hawkeyes respond this Saturday?

Denard Robinson is the main man for the Michigan offense. Robinson actually isn’t having quite the season he did last year, but he is still one of the most dynamic players in football. Michigan will need Robinson to become more accurate throwing the football. He has thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this year, and he is completing just 55% of his pass attempts. The best news for Michigan’s offense this year has been the emergence of Fitzgerald Touissant at the running back spot. Touissant is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and he is taking some pressure off Robinson.

The primary reason Michigan is 7-1 right now is the much improved play of their defense. The Wolverines defense ranks 28^th in the nation in total defense. Michigan is forcing turnovers at such a high rate that opponents are only scoring 14.6 points per game on them this year. Mike Martin is the leader on the defensive front, and Jordan Kovacs has stepped up in the secondary.

The Iowa Hawkeyes were 14.5 point favorites at Minnesota last week, but they managed to lose the game. The Hawkeyes are now 5-0 at home this year, but 0-3 on the road. The bad news is they now face a very talented Michigan football team. The good news is they will be in front of their home crowd at Kinnick Stadium.  [soliloquy id=”82219″]

James Vandenburg is having a very good first year as Iowa’s starting quarterback. Vandenburg is completing 62% of his passes, and he has thrown 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions this year. Marvin McNutt is clearly the team’s go to guy on the outside. McNutt has 48 catches and nine touchdowns in 2011. The Iowa offensive line hasn’t been as dominant as normal, and that has hurt the offense quite a bit this year. Marcus Coker is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, but he has struggled against top defenses.

The Iowa defense has been very disappointing this season. They did lose a lot of talent from last year’s squad, but most expected them to still be a strength for this team. Despite having two very solid cover corners; Iowa is just 80^th out of 120 teams in pass defense. The Hawkeyes are also allowing 164 yards per game on the ground. This unit needs to play better.

Michigan is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Iowa is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Iowa should be very motivated in this one, and I think they have a solid chance at an outright upset.

Free College Football Pick: Iowa +4
Score Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 21

Minnesota vs. Michigan State

Minnesota is coming off a shocking home win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. Jerry Kill’s team was a huge 14.5 point underdog in that win. The Golden Gophers will be looking to carry some momentum into a very tough road test against Michigan State.

Spartan Stadium
Saturday November 5, 12:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Off
College Football Spread: Michigan State -27.5 (-110) Minnesota +27.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 46.5

The Spartans are coming off a disappointing loss at Nebraska, and one would imagine they’ll be anxious to get back on track in this one.

Minnesota now has its best play maker healthy once again. MarQueis Gray has struggled with injuries some this year, but he is back at nearly full strength now. Gray is the team’s quarterback, but he is also probably their best runner. Gray has run for 500 yards on just 105 carries this season. He still needs to work on his accuracy in the passing game, but he does have the ability to improvise. The offensive line is very dinged up right now, which could be a big problem against Michigan State’s terrific defensive front. The team needs to find a way to get the ball to Da’Jon McKnight more often, since he is a game-changer at the wide receiver spot.

The Golden Gophers defense has struggled this season. This unit is allowing 34 points per game so far this year. They are particularly bad against the run. Opponents are gaining 202 yards per game on the ground. Troy Stoudemire is the team’s best cover corner, but he is listed as questionable for this game because of a wrist injury.  [soliloquy id=”82219″]

How has Michigan State gone 6-2 through such a difficult schedule so far in 2011? It has been the amazing play of their defense. The Spartans rank second in the nation in total defense. The pass defense is first in the nation, and they are only allowing a meager 127 passing yards per contest. Jerrell Worthy is the anchor up front for this defense. Isaiah Lewis leads the team with four interceptions. Michigan State is allowing just 15 points per game.

Kirk Cousins is the senior leader under center for the Spartans offense. This is his third year as the team’s starting quarterback, and he knows the system extremely well. B.J. Cunningham has 48 catches already this year, but none of them came last week against Nebraska. The Spartans will need to get him involved in the offense again this week. Michigan State has a pair of very talented running backs. Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker both have over 400 yards rushing already this year. Expect Michigan State to try to establish the run early on against this weak Golden Gophers rushing defense.

Minnesota had a nice win last week, but I think it will be back to reality this week for the Golden Gophers. They were beaten 58-0 at Michigan, and I think Michigan State will be ready to wallop them this weekend.

Free College Football Pick: Michigan State -27.5
Score Prediction: Michigan State 45 Minnesota 7