How to Bet on The PGA Golf Tour
Perhaps more than most of the popular North American sports, pro golf is a tough, strange beast to tame. It’s dart-throwing. It’s a needle in a haystack. However, because the odds of a particular golfer winning are so low, you can make a lot more money per bet on golf than you can on most sports.
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So why not try and get good at it?
Here are some tips I like to use.
1. Beware the “big name” trap.
You could also call it the “Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson” trap. Sportsbooks are real jerks when it comes to golf odds. They know that the average bettor isn’t too knowledgeable about golf and may not realize how much the star names like Tiger and Phil are past their prime. 
In reality, Tiger in particular should be as much of a long shot as anyone in the field from week to week, with odds of +5000 or worse. Yet, time and time again, we find him around the top two or three favorites at +1500 or so.
The books are taking advantage of you. Don’t pounce on the big name.
Do you homework and find out if he’s actually a legit pick.
2. Peripheral stats commonly project performance.
Golfers themselves are helpful to bettors because their skill sets are so consistent. Sure, they can tweak some swing mechanics, get a new putter, or so on, but Zach Johnson won’t magically develop the ability to crush 350-yard drives. Their abilities mostly stay the same.
It really pays to examine where on the Tour golfers rank in stats like driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, putting, scrambling and so on. Cross-reference them with a given tournament’s course setup and past history. If you know that the course plays extremely long and has big greens, you can take a flier on a long hitter who isn’t very accurate.
If the course is short and tight, seek out a great ball striker who puts the ball in the fairway. Peripheral stats are excellent predictors of performance.
3. Approach majors differently – but don’t go overboard.
I am someone who believes the majors can be a different beast. A young player with no Tour victories may be terrified with a lead on Sunday. A vet who has choked time and time again may have lost our trust in majors. A hometown hero may feel too much heat, a-la Colin Montgomerie and Lee Westwood at the British Open. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
But we shouldn’t go overboard there. Golf is becoming a young man’s game. More and more first-time winners pop up to capture majors every season (like Charl Schwartzel and Rory McIlroy). Random veterans rally to surprise us (like Darren Clarke).
It’s good to be aware of a major’s prestige, but don’t let it dominate your betting strategy.
4. Use hunches as tiebreakers – not your primary decider.
When is the right time to use a “hunch”? I think the moment is when you’re torn on two golfers who both look like good statistical picks. Maybe one guy’s accuracy stats line up great for a course and another is on a hot streak with his recent finishes. In that case, going with your gut makes for a solid tiebreaker.
5. Avoid the guy who won last week.
For whatever reason, it’s amazingly rare for a golfer to win back-to-back tournaments (unless he’s Byron Nelson, Johnny Miller or Tiger Woods in his prime). Just based on that statistical trend alone, I almost never pick the guy who won last week, as he almost never wins (and his betting value is inflated anyway).
6. Treat the golf season as a long haul.
If you bet one tournament a season hoping to hit the jackpot, you’ll wind up frustrated. The key is to stay the course. Remember, because you get such a return on your bet, winning only once in a season can be enough to make your golf year profitable. You may get hot.
Like I did when I picked three straight winners in 2009 but, more often than not, you may hit on a winner just once per season, as I did in 2010.
