RBC Heritage Betting
Harbour Town measures just 7,101 yards but it is a tight track that favors accuracy over length. It was the third toughest par 71 on TOUR last year – greens were tough to reach and the fairways were tough to hit.
2014 RBC Heritage
Location: Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, United States
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Date: Apr 17-20, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 5,800,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,044,000 (18% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Graeme McDowell ($1,044,000)
Hilton Head Island, South Carolina will host the PGA pros this week on the heels of golf’s first major. There is a surprisingly good field that will tee it up at Harbour Town – it acts as a nice deviation from the long track the pros have been playing the last month or so.
Elite shot makers with scrambling ability and an ability to stick it close on the tiny greens will head the field this week. A solid putter will also be an asset as always.
So who should we keep an eye on this week – let’s break it down.
The Favorites:
Jordan Spieth 16/1
Was terrific last week – a T2 before emotions took over. It was the first real blip we have seen from the sensational rookie. This week his competition isn’t quite as tough and the spotlight isn’t quite as bright. He finished ninth here last year and is a Masters hangover doesn’t get in the way, Spieth should win this tournament easily – but the hangover is a real thing.
Matt Kuchar 16/1
Kuchar has been the most consistent golfer on the planet the last month or two. He followed up a pair of seconds with a T5 last week. He has made nine of 10 cuts at Hilton Head with two top 10s and another top 25. He is accurate, he is 15th in scrambling and he should be hungry after being so close his last three tournaments.
The Contenders:
Jim Furyk 20/1
Is coming off a T14 at the Maters and is 12/15, with a win and two runners-up at Harbour Town. His stats obviously match up well here – 19th in driving accuracy and 34th in scrambling so it is likely that we see Furyk challenging here this week again.
Luke Donald 22/1
Has played this track very well – two seconds and two thirds in his last five appearances. He is seventh in strokes gained-putting and third in scrambling on TOUR – perfect for Hilton Head. We haven’t heard a whole lot from Donald this year – maybe he makes some noise this week.
Zach Johnson 22/1
Is another guy whose game fits this course very well – ranking inside the top 15 in driving accuracy, scrambling, proximity and par 4 scoring average to go with a solid 52nd in strokes gained putting. He has been inconsistent here however – just two top 25s although one of those was a runner-up finish in 2012 – and he did miss the cut last week. Johnson has four top 10s on the season already and should be in the mix on a track that fits his game very well.
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Graeme McDowell 25/1
Defending champ here has been very good this year – four top 10s in his five starts. His stats are a great fit for Harbour Town – first in SGP, 14th in par 4 scoring and 17th in driving accuracy but he, like Johnson missed the cut at the Masters. McDowell will be out to avenge last week’s performance and should be rested after the weekend off.
Harris English 33/1
Missed the cut in his Masters debut but he had been solid all season prior to that – six top 10s. He enters first in par 4 scoring average and 25th in proximity but his scrambling numbers and accuracy stats leave something to be desired. He was T8 here in 2012 but missed the cut in this tournament last year. English has certainly cooled off after a terrific winter.
Kevin Na 33/1
Didn’t play this event last year but finished inside the top 10 at Harbour Town in 2011 and 2012. He has been top 15 in his last three starts overall and ranks second in scrambling, third in par 4 scoring average and 15th in SGP. If he can keep the ball on the fairway which he has struggled with, Na could emerge.
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Has top 10 finishes in his last two appearances at Harbour Town – a T8 and a T6 and has finished inside the top 25 in three of his last four starts overall. He may look like an intriguing 40/1 but his accuracy stats have me looking elsewhere.
Matt Every 40/1
Missed the cut last week but won a few weeks back at Bay Hill. His stats line up well here – fourth in SGP, 12th in proximity and 29th in par 4 scoring average but his history is a tad sketchy on this track – T8, a T83 and a MC. Who knows what to make of Every this week?
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Chris Stroud 50/1
Finished T6 here last year and has gone T9, T31 and T12 in his last three starts overall. He is 12th in adjusted scoring, fourth in scrambling, 12th in adjusted scoring and fourth in scrambling on TOUR – decent stats for Harbour Town. Stroud did well in Puerto Rico and at the Sony which are similar type track to the Heritage track.
Kevin Stadler 50/1
Looked terrific in his Masters debut – a T8 and he did finish T4 here in 2012. Stadler looks like he’s trending upward – his ball striking should keep him in the mix this week.
Patrick Reed 50/1
Maybe some humble pie will have done him some good. Reed is still one of the hotter players on TOUR despite his arrogance and is an intriguing 50/1.
Jerry Kelly 80/1
Finished fifth here last year and has played well this season – three top 10s including a T6 at the Valero. He ranks inside the top 45 in adjusted scoring and in scrambling and could be the surprise of the RBC Heritage.
The Pick:
Matt Kuchar at 16/1 is the pick this week – HE IS GOING TO WIN SOMETIME! My guess it happens this week on a track that suits his game perfectly.
My sleeper is Patrick Reed at 50/1. He has a ton to prove this week after a somewhat disastrous Masters. He won’t be 50/1 in many tournaments – take advantage now!
