U.S. Open Predictions
The 113th edition of the US Open returns to Merion Golf Club for the first time since 1981 this week. Golf`s biggest names will be after one of the four most prestigious prizes on the planet when they tee it up Thursday.
2013 U.S. Open Championship
Location: Ardmore, Pennsylvania, United States
Course: Merion Golf Club
Date: Jun 13-16, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,500,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,170,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Webb Simpson ($1,440,000)
The course measures just 6,996 yards – the shortest since 2004 but to say that this track will be easy is a colossal understatement. Course management will be key, ball striking will be essential and slick greens are promised as well this week. To add to the intrigue in the second major of the year, most of the field had never played here before Merion was announced as host of the Open. Rain early in the week may slow down the course but a stiff test is absolutely guaranteed.
So let`s break it down, let`s take a look at some names that should do well this week in the year`s second major.
The Favorites:
Tiger Woods 9/2
Tiger enters as the overwhelming favorite and why not? His wedge game and putting have gone to a different level this year although those two aspects of his game were awful at the Memorial two weeks ago. He currently leads the PGA TOUR with four victories and is first in adjusted scoring and the all-around ranking and as long as he’s entered he absolutely has to be in the conversation.
Graeme McDowell 20/1
McDowell has been heating up as the year wears on and his history at the Open is undeniable. McDowell has won two of his last four starts worldwide, has made the cut in the US Open all seven times with a win in 2010 and a T2 last year. He’s first on TOUR in driving accuracy and scrambling and already proved this year that he doesn’t mind small tight tracks – he won at Harbour Town on a course similar to this one. Graeme always seems to show up on the leaderboard in the US Open and this year should be no different.
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Kuchar enters the US Open as the hottest player on TOUR – two wins this year and a runner-up finish ( a win and a T2 in his last two events played). He was T6 at the Open in 2010, T14 in 2011 and T27 in 2012 but enters in the best form of his career. Stats like 13th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in scrambling, fourth in adjusted scoring, T7 in par-4 scoring and fourth in par-5 scoring will certainly help him this week.
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Can anyone figure Phil out? He has nine top 10s in the US Open and has finished second a staggering five times. But he enters this week as inconsistent as we have ever seen him. He did finish T2 at TPC Southwind, his fourth top-three finish of the year but has had a knack of missing the cut the week after a good performance. Phil scares me for sure this week!
Rory McIlroy 20/1
Rory is another tough guy to figure out – he certainly hasn’t been all that dominant this year. But as a former US Open champ he has to be in the conversation. Rory just hasn’t been the same guy since Nike snatched him away but talent trumps all – if he gets it going early, confidence could take him to a championship.
The Contenders:
Adam Scott 22/1
Hasn’t been playing all that much but if there is a better “big-tournament golfer” on the planet right now, I’d like to see him! He hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in a major since the 2011 Open Championship and has already won the Masters this year. Scott always come up huge in the biggest events and although the tight track doesn’t necessarily suit his game, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him contend.
Justin Rose 22/1
Rose is a dangerous guy if only he could get his putter working! His history at the US Open isn’t great – two top 10s, but four missed cuts in seven starts. Currently he is 17th on TOUR in fairways hit, seventh in GIR, sixth in adjusted scoring and first in par-5 scoring and is coming off an OK T8 at Memorial in his last start. Rose is a quality guy although his game may not suit this track all that well.
Charl Schwartzel 28/1
We are still waiting for Schwartzel to get back to the form that made him the hottest golfer on the planet over the winter. He has 11 top 10s in his last 16 starts worldwide and is coming off a T8 at Muirfield Village. He is 15th in ball-striking on TOUR, T9 in proximity and third in adjusted scoring but may suffer a bit due to his average driving accuracy and scrambling.
Lee Westwood 28/1
C’mon Westy – it’s your turn! He had five straight top 10s before a withdrawal at the Memorial and enters having finished no worse than a T23 in last five editions of the U.S. Open. He is third on TOUR in scrambling, 33rd in fairways hit; 16th in adjusted scoring – perfect attributes for this track. Could this be Westwood’s year to finally break through with his first major? [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Webb Simpson 40/1
Defending champion here has eight top 20s this year including a solo second at Harbour Town. He enters this week 40th in greens in regulation and 30th in adjusted scoring and in the top 30 in both par-4 and par-5 scoring. He is always a threat.
Jim Furyk 40/1
Finished T4 in the Open last year and has to be mentioned due to being fourth on TOUR in fairways hit, first in proximity to the hole and 22nd in adjusted scoring.
Steve Stricker 40/1
Stricker keeps plugging along with his abbreviated schedule but has the game to contend this week. He would be inside the top 25 on TOUR – 13th in driving accuracy13th in fairways hit, second in greens in regulation, 13th in strokes gained-putting and 20th in adjusted scoring if he qualified for the official stats. He has made 15 of 17 cuts here and seemingly has the perfect game to challenge here. Don’t sleep on Stricker – he could emerge.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Henrik Stenson 66/1
Always seems to be in the mix in major tournaments and enters playing arguably his best golf – eight cuts made in 10 starts with three top 10s. He is the PGA TOUR leader in fairways hit, is third in greens in regulation, T23 in adjusted scoring and T5 in par-5 scoring. Stenson’s skills are very well suited for this track making him an intriguing 66/1.
Bill Haas 66/1
Is coming off a T4 at the Memorial where he led after 36 holes – a troubling trend that has seen him look good only to stumble in the last round. He has six top 10s and nine top 25s this year but has a sketchy record at the US Open. He enters 53rd in fairways hit, 13th in greens in regulation, 39th in adjusted scoring, 11th in scrambling and T1 in par-4 scoring.
Billy Horschel 80/1
Had a win earlier this year at the Zurich Classic and is coming off an OK T10 at the FedEx St. Jude. He has been terrific this year on TOUR and ranks 31st in fairways hit, 34th in GIR, 17th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in adjusted scoring and T7 in par-4 scoring. If Billy can put it all together this week, he could represent a very nice payday at 80/1.
Scott Stallings 100/1
Will play the US Open for the first time this week but enters in very good form – T4-T4-T2 in his last three starts. He comes into the US Open with a ton of confidence and is probably the best value on the board.
The Pick:
My pick this week also happens to be one of my favorites Graeme McDowell at 20/1. He has been on fire around the world and is as tough mentally as he is physically. With a soft course and his straight driver, he will have mid to short irons in; he ranks 3rd in approach shots from 125-150 yards.
My sleeper is Henrik Stenson at 66/1. Stenson is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and No. 3 on Tour in greens in regulation and he loves the big stage.
2013 Memorial Championship at Muifield Betting Lines & Future Odds
Tiger Woods 5.10 to 1
Graeme McDowell 21 to 1
Matt Kuchar 21 to 1
Phil Mickelson 22 to 1
Rory McIlroy 22 to 1
Adam Scott 23 to 1
Justin Rose 25 to 1
Brandt Snedeker 30 to 1
Lee Westwood 30 to 1
Charl Schwartzel 35 to 1
Jim Furyk 40 to 1
Luke Donald 40 to 1
Sergio Garcia 40 to 1
Dustin Johnson 45 to 1
Jason Day 45 to 1
Steve Stricker 45 to 1
Keegan Bradley 50 to 1
Webb Simpson 55 to 1
Louis Oosthuizen 65 to 1
Matteo Manassero 65 to 1
Rickie Fowler 65 to 1
Hunter Mahan 70 to 1
Jason Dufner 70 to 1
Henrik Stenson 80 to 1
Bill Haas 85 to 1
Boo Weekley 85 to 1
Bubba Watson 85 to 1
Martin Kaymer 85 to 1
Zach Johnson 90 to 1
Ian Poulter 95 to 1
Padraig Harrington 95 to 1
Angel Cabrera 100 to 1
Ernie Els 100 to 1
Scott Stallings 100 to 1
Tim Clark 100 to 1
Nick Watney 110 to 1
Ryan Moore 110 to 1
Francesco Molinari 115 to 1
Kevin Chappell 115 to 1
Thorbjorn Olesen 115 to 1
Russell Henley 120 to 1
Billy Horschel 125 to 1
Kevin Streelman 125 to 1
Kyle Stanley 125 to 1
Michael Thompson 125 to 1
Bo Van Pelt 150 to 1
Fredrik Jacobson 150 to 1
KJ Choi 150 to 1
Peter Hanson 150 to 1
FIELD (all others) 5/1
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