Byron Nelson Predictions
The PGA Pros move back to the great state of Texas this week – some to recover after what was another scintillating PGA Championship last week. TPC at Four Season has not proven to be a picnic in the past however – it is extremely hard to hit the fairways and Greens In Regulation stats have favored the course over the players in recent years.
2013 HP Byron Nelson Championship
Location: Irving, Texas, United States
Course: TPC at Four Seasons
Date: May 16-19, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,500,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,170,000 (18% of total purse)
Defending Champion: Jason Dufner ($1,170,000)
A quality field will tee it up this week looking to dethrone Jason Dufner who makes the trip this week after a decent outing in the PGA Championship last week. Let’s break down some of the contenders and what should play out this week.
The Favorites:
Matt Kuchar 14/1
Should be motivated this week after a T48 at TPC Sawgrass. He finished T6 here in 2011 and T15 last year and has never missed a cut on this track in five starts. He has been just OK since the Masters but has made 14 straight cuts ahead of the Byron Nelson. He is 36th in strokes gained-putting and 17th in adjusted scoring on TOUR and is the favorite this week to bounce back.
Jason Dufner 16/1
The defending champion here has struggled a tad so far this year failing to record a top 10 so far! Unreal! He looked good at the PLAYERS before a final round 80 saw him finish T62. Duf also had a T8 in this event in 2011 so we know he loves this track. Still with little to show for a so far lost season it is hard to trust Dufner this week!
Jason Day 16/1
Won this tournament in 2010 and had a solo fifth in 2011 and a T9 last year. He was T19 at the PLAYERS last week and has made 14 straight cuts with 4 top 10s in 2013. With three straight top 10s in this event and with the form he has shown so far this year, Day is at the top of the list this week.
The Contenders:
Charl Schwartzel 20/1
Will make his first start at this tournament and is coming off a T55 at the PLAYERS to break his string of top 25s around the world. Schwartzel started the year like a house on fire but has been rather disappointing of late but his talent can’t be underestimated. He is 33rd in strokes gained-putting, sixth in adjusted scoring and first in three-putt avoidance on TOUR and absolutely can’t be counted out this week.
Louis Oosthuizen 20/1
Is the highest ranked golfer in the field this week and is coming off a T17 at TPC Sawgrass. He has three top 20s in his last four starts and just maybe due for a big week in his first ever start at TPC Four Seasons. First timers have fared well at this event in the past – Louis could continue that trend!
Keegan Bradley 20/1
Won this event in 2011 for his first PGA win and was T24 last year. He has been unimpressive lately – 2 straight missed cuts but had a top 10 in his last tournament in Texas – the Shell Houston Open. Bradley is hit or miss this year but is another that certainly can’t be counted out.
Ryan Palmer 25/1
Looked good last week with a T5 at the PLAYERS and had a runner-up finish here in a playoff in 2011 and T9 in 2012. He is a Texas guy and will be looking to build on his results here. He could go low or he could withdraw after a well-publicized loss of his friend last week. Best to stay away!
Marc Leishman 25/1
Has quietly been one of the hotter golfers on TOUR lately – a T4 at the Masters, at T9 at Harbour Town and another top 10 at the PLAYERS last week. He has a T8 (2009), T12 (2010) and T3 (2012) at TPC Four Seasons in four starts with an uncharacteristic missed cut in 2011. He looks to be due on a course he has traditionally done very well at.
Jimmy Walker 33/1
Shot a 67 on Sunday at the PLAYERS to finish in a tie for 15th. He has just one top 25 here in seven starts to go along with five cuts made. He has been solid indeed but hasn`t been great on this track.
Ben Crane 40/1
Is coming off a T8 at the PLAYERS and had a nice T4 at the Houston Open in his last tournament in Texas. He`s played here a bunch highlighted by a runner-up in 2002 and a T7 in 2010 and enters with a putter that ripped up TPC Sawgrass last week.
The Sleepers:
Jordan Speith 50/1
Local high school kid burst on the scene in this event in 2010 when he finished T16. He then finished T32 in 2011. He has top 2 10s and another top 25 among six cuts made this season and although he hasn`t exactly been in the mix lately could emerge on his favorite track this week.
J.J. Henry 125/1
And now for the super sleeper! He has made the cut here 10 of 11 starts and he finished a career best T3 in last year`s tournament. He currently sits in the top 30 on TOUR in fairways hit and greens in regulation – perfect traits for this track.
The Pick:
The pick this week is Jason Day at 16/1. He has three straight top 10s in this event and he has been playing very well this year. He has 10 top 10s already this year and had a closing round 68 at the PLAYERS. He’s due and a rather obvious pick this week.
My sleeper is Jordan Speith at 50/1. He knows this track well and we know he’ll get some love from the home town fans.
2013 Byron Nelson Championship Betting Lines & Future Odds
JASON DAY 12-1
MATT KUCHAR 15-1
JASON DUFNER 15-1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 20-1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 20-1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 20-1
MARC LEISHMAN 20-1
RYAN PALMER 25-1
JIMMY WALKER 25-1
D.A. POINTS 30-1
JORDAN SPIETH 30-1
ROBERT GARRIGUS 30-1
FREDDIE JACOBSON 40-1
JEFF OVERTON 40-1
BEN CRANE 40-1
CHARLES HOWELL III 50-1
MARTIN KAYMER 50-1
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 50-1
BOO WEEKLEY 50-1
JOHN SENDEN 60-1
HARRIS ENGLISH 60-1
ROBERT KARLSSON 60-1
ANGEL CABRERA 60-1
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 60-1
SCOTT PIERCY 60-1
BRIAN DAVIS 60-1
JOHN ROLLINS 80-1
GREG CHALMERS 80-1
GRAHAM DeLAET 80-1
PAT PEREZ 80-1
BRIAN GAY 80-1
MARCEL SIEM 80-1
KEN DUKE 80-1
GARY WOODLAND 100-1
VIJAY SINGH 100-1
JOHN HUH 100-1
SEAN O’HAIR 100-1
RORY SABBATINI 100-1
BRYCE MOLDER 125-1
Y.E. YANG 125-1
CAMILO VILLEGAS 125-1
SEUNG-YUL NOH 125-1
CASEY WITTENBERG 125-1
JEFF MAGGERT 150-1
RYO ISHIKAWA 150-1
KENNY PERRY 250-1
JOHN DALY 300-1
GUAN TIANLANG 1000-1
FIELD (all others) 2-1
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