AT&T National Predictions
The PGA Pros move to Bethesda, Maryland this week and the famed Congressional Country Club where the 2013 AT&T National will be contested. Congressional serves as the second longest track that the PGA TOUR will visit this year – 7,569 yards meaning that total driving and ball striking will be at a premium this week.
2013 AT&T National
Location: Bethesda, Maryland, United States
Course: Congressional Country Club
Date: Jun 27-30, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,500,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,170,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Tiger Woods ($1,170,000)
Scrambling stats have traditionally been very hard to come by at Congressional and putting inside 10 feet will also prove to be a challenge this week as well. Defending champion Tiger Woods won`t be back to defend this week meaning that the talented field should provide an exciting week of golf. Tiger, who won the tournament last year, withdrew last week with an elbow strain.
Here is a look at some of the names to watch this week and what should play out on Sunday.
The Favorites:
Adam Scott 12/1
Has arguably been the most impressive golfer on TOUR this year – he has been in every event entered! He’s 13th in total driving and 19th in ball striking, inside top 15 in fairways and greens hit, seventh in strokes gained-putting and fourth in adjusted scoring – crucial stats for this track and he did finish third at Congressional last year. Scott is a threat as always!
Jason Day 14/1
Is coming off another terrific performance in a Major – a T2 in the US Open and he did finish runner-up in the U.S. Open at Congressional to Rory McIlroy in 2011 and was T8 here last year – his present form and his history here make him a favorite. He has finished outside the top 50 once all year, back in February with zero missed cuts and five top 10s – amazing that he hasn’t won! His game is perfectly suited for this course and there is no golfer more due than Mr. Day.
Hunter Mahan 16/1
Mahan has been all over the map of late but when on – he is very competitive. He is fifth in total driving, 15th in ball-striking and has four finishes of T12 or better on this course – T8 (2007), T12 (2008), second (2009), T8 (2012) and he did hold the 36 hole lead here last year. He’s a tad inconsistent and difficult to trust despite having an affinity for Congressional.
The Contenders:
Brandt Snedeker 20/1
We still aren’t so sure about his health but he did finish a respectable T17 at Merion. He was T5 here in ’09 and a T11 in the ’11 U.S. Open and is 17th in GIR, 22nd in strokes gained-putting, 11th in adjusted scoring and T1 in par-4 scoring on TOUR this year – perfect attributes for Congressional.
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Has quietly been good as of late – a T10 at Merion and a T13 at the Travelers. He has the overall game to contend this week but his gunslinger mentality may get the best of him this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Billy Horschel 28/1
Is coming off a very good T4 at the US Open and has seven top 10s already this year. He is eighth in total driving and 11th in ball-striking, 25th in greens in regulation, 17th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in adjusted scoring and T4 in par-4 scoring – ideal for Congressional. He has been terrific this year and has to be in the every-week conversation.
Bo Van Pelt 28/1
Was runner-up to Tiger Woods in this tournament a year ago when he co-led the field in total driving and ranked T8 in greens hit He also tied for 14th in the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional and has made his last eight cuts on TOUR already this year. He has the present form and the history here to at least warrant a mention.
Graham DeLaet 40/1
Has been very impressive this year and is coming off a third place finish at the Travelers. He ranks 11th in proximity to hole, 16th scoring average, 1st in GIR, 46th in putts 5-10’, 9th in driving distance on the PGA Tour, 2nd total driving, 1st in ball striking, 5th in total birdies, 3rd in par 5 performance and 7th carry distance. Too good to not have won yet on TOUR. He made the cut last year in his only visit to Congressional and enters this year in much better form than that of last.
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Hoffman, like DeLaet made a run last week but fell short. He’s 55th in ball-striking and 44th in total driving which should help him this week – the one thing going against him is the very strong field assembled.
Bill Haas 40/1
Has been inconsistent of late and he missed the cut here when the US Open was staged. He has made only one cut in his last four starts – a T4 at Memorial but enters in some sketchy form to the AT&T National.
Ryan Palmer 40/1
Palmer had been on quite a roll before missing the cut at the US Open – 7-for-7 with four top 15s, two of which went for top fives. His last 3 finishes at Congressional have been 15th last year, 21st (US Open) and 22nd. Currently he sits 12th in scoring average, 10th in driving distance, 51st in proximity to hole, 22nd in 3-putt avoidance, 35th in strokes-gained putting, 33rd in GIR and 6th in total birdies. He has been consistently good and will be out to erase the memory of an ugly US Open.
Fredrick Jacobson 40/1
Jacobson hasn’t exactly lived up to expectation this year but he has been OK – 11th in proximity to the hole, 12th in 3-putt avoidance and 29th in putting 5-10’. His history here is decent as well – 14th when the US Open was held on this track is just an example. He may be the best putter in the field and is certainly due for his first win of 2013.
Scott Stallings 40/1
Has a pair of T4s and a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic over the last month and may be one of the more impressive players in the field this week. Stallings all around game makes him a threat this week making him an intriguing 40/1
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher)
Martin Laird 66/1
Has been very good the last eight weeks – a T21 at Merion, a win at the Valero Texas Open and T5 at THE PLAYERS are proof of his present form. He finished T 17 here last year and enters T17 in total driving on TOUR this year which is essential at Congressional.
Kevin Chappell 66/1
Was T3 in the 2011 US Open here and currently sits 15th in total driving on TOUR. He also had a second place finish at Muirfield Village a month ago on a long tough track similar to Congressional. He always shows up at tough events – this week should be no different based on present form.
Pat Perez 66/1
Has a T3 in 2007 and a T12 in 2008 at Congressional on his résumé already and is coming off a T8 in his last starts at Memorial. He is 23rd on TOUR in GIR, 42nd in adjusted scoring and T2 in par-3 scoring – good stats for this track.
The Pick:
My pick this week is Jason Day at 14/1. Is there anyone that deserves a win more on TOUR? He has just one and that was back in 2010. His history here is great and so is his present form.
My less obvious pick is Graham DeLaet at 40/1. He is at or near the top of more than his share of PGA stats and as a big hitter, he should at least be in contention.
My sleeper is Kevin Chappell at 66/1 – he is tough as nails and loves this track. He, like the other two on the list is a great driver of the golf ball – something essential at Congressional.
2013 Travelers Open Betting Lines & Future Odds
ADAM SCOTT 12/1
JASON DAY 15/1
HUNTER MAHAN 15/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 15/1
RICKIE FOWLER 20/1
BILLY HORSCHEL 20/1
BO VAN PELT 30/1
JIM FURYK 30/1
GRAHAM DeLAET 30/1
SCOTT STALLINGS 30/1
BILL HAAS 40/1
RYAN PALMER 40/1
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 40/1
HARRIS ENGLISH 40/1
NICK WATNEY 50/1
FREDDIE JACOBSON 50/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 50/1
JIMMY WALKER 50/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 50/1
JOHN HUH 50/1
KEVIN CHAPPELL 50/1
JOHN SENDEN 50/1
RUSSELL HENLEY 50/1
JOHN ROLLINS 50/1
ANGEL CABRERA 60/1
JORDAN SPIETH 60/1
PAT PEREZ 60/1
ROBERT GARRIGUS 60/1
K.J. CHOI 60/1
STEWART CINK 125/1
VIJAY SINGH 125/1
RYO ISHIKAWA 150/1
FIELD (all others) 9/4
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